859
FXUS63 KGID 180551
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1151 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/sprinkles possible (10-30%) with a cold front
  tonight. Best chances will be Tri-Cities N and E.

- Initial surge of high winds possible overnight, and the High
  Wind Warning start time was moved up to Midnight.

- Damaging winds (gusts 55-70 MPH) likely Thursday and a High
  Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM. Strongest winds
  along and north of I-80. These strong winds may also lead to
  areas of blowing dust and reduced visibilities.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns also expected
  Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for our north
  central Kansas counties from 10 AM to 6 PM Thursday.

- Mostly dry and mild through the remainder of the forecast
  period. In fact, there are some indications for very warm
  temperatures on or around Christmas Day and potentially
  continuing through the end of the calendar year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

-- HIGH WIND WARNING PUT INTO EFFECT "EARLY":
Based on a combination of verified strong-to-severe wind gusts
already occurring this evening over western/north central NE
(likely driven in part by "mix down" from passing high-based
showers), and also the HRRR depicting at least a brief surge of
potentially 50-60 MPH gusts racing southward across our CWA
mainly 12-4 AM with the initial frontal surge, have opted to
move up the "official start time" of our High Wind Warning from
6 AM to Midnight/12 AM.

- As outlined in the Warning statement itself, we are looking at
  TWO SEPARATE periods of severe wind potential...the first the
  aforementioned initial/brief surge mainly 12-4 AM...then a
  lull...and then the "main event" that the Warning was
  initially issued for starting primarily after 8 AM and
  persisting well into the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A fairly thick shield of cirrus clouds can be streaming across
the local area this afternoon. This cloud shield has help to
hold down afternoon temperatures a few degrees from the previous
couple of afternoons, with most locations in the mid 50s to
around 60 as of 3 PM today. A few light returns on radar can be
seen across the sandhills this afternoon, but likely nothing is
reaching the ground, with any chance for precip coming along a
cold front that will cross the local area this evening/late
tonight.

For tonight, expect the aforementioned cold front to rapidly
cross the state of Nebraska from north to south between roughly
9 PM and Midnight. While there could be some very light precip
(light rain or sprinkles) along this front, the focus of this
precip will be across the eastern third of the state, with only
a hundredth or two of precip accumulation possible from
roughly the Tri-Cities and to the northeast - with many
locations likely not expected to see any precip. The bigger
impact from this front will the a surge in northwesterly winds
overnight, which could gust 40 to 55 MPH for a few hours around
midnight, before increasing further during the morning hours
Thursday.

Latest model guidance continues to indicate a widespread wind
gust potential of 50-60 KT during the morning through early
afternoon hours across the entire forecast area, with the
highest values focuses across south central Nebraska just north
of I-80. With (at least) some partial sunshine also expected,
the wind gust potential could also be aided by mixing to around
800mb, increasing likelihood very strong winds/gusts. As a
result, had enough confidence to increase wind gust potential to
70 MPH across the area tomorrow, with winds not expected to
decrease significantly until the late afternoon/early evening
hours. Given the strong winds, also kept the mention for the
potential for some blowing dust, especially considering the lack
of snow cover and how dry we have been lately.

In addition to the winds and blowing dust, anther concern for
Thursday is the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions.
While minimum relative humidity values aren`t quite as low as we
typically like to see, given the strong winds and RH values at
least "near" warning criteria, opted to pull the trigger for a
Red Flag warning for our Kansas counties where temperatures will
be the warmest and RH values will be the lowest from the late
morning through afternoon hours.

Beyond tomorrow, temperatures should rebound fairly quickly on
Friday as a warm front pushes across the area from the west with
yet another (not as strong and dry) cold front moving across
the area from the north Saturday. This cold front should hold
temperatures down in the 40s over the upcoming weekend, with a
return to 50s across the area by Monday as upper level ridging
re-establishes itself across the plains and persists into the
latter part of next week. This should result in a very mild
Christmas week across the area with several models indicating
temperatures could peak around Christmas day, with highs again
climbing to near 60, or about 20-25 degrees above "typical"
Christmas day temperatures across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
-- General overview:
Although confidence is relatively-high in VFR ceiling/visibility
through the period (although there is potential for a low-VFR
ceiling and/or sporadic visibility reduction in blowing dust),
there are plenty of wind-related concerns to go
around...including very strong surface winds and also several
hours of fairly strong low level wind shear (LLWS) prior to the
onset of the strongest winds. The unusually large number of FM
groups in latest TAFs are almost entirely reflective of these
wind concerns.

-- Wind details:
- Surface winds:
Moderately strong to very strong winds will mark the majority of
the period. Within the first hour of the period (06-07Z), an
initial/brief "surge" of north-northwesterly winds should arrive
(gusts 35+ KT likely). Through much of the remainder of the
early morning hours speeds will back down with northwesterly
gusts peaking closer to 25KT. However, once daytime mixing
commences, rather intense northwest winds will prevail
especially 15-22Z with sustained speeds commonly at least
30-35KT/gusts commonly 40-50KT. By late afternoon and especially
into the evening, speeds will decrease...gradually at first
(gusts at least 20-25KT still probably at 00Z)...but then
sustained speeds dropping under 10KT by 03Z.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Despite breezy to at least briefly-windy surface winds, will
maintain LLWS groups through these first 15 hours given the
presence of very strong north-northwest winds commonly 45-55KT
within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL...resulting in a solid 30-35+KT
of shear magnitude between the surface and this level. Once
daytime mixing kicks in and surface speeds increase, LLWS
concerns will wane. There could be some marginal LLWS again
toward evening as surface winds decrease, but LLWS magnitude
appears closer to 25KT than the TAF-inclusion-criteria of 30+KT.

-- Possible (but not considered likely) ceiling/visibility
  concerns:
- Ceiling:
The first half of the period will feature quite a bit of mid-
high level clouds (ceiling mainly near/above 9K ft. AGL).
However a lower VFR-ceiling perhaps closer to 4-5K ft. AGL could
materialize at times. MVFR is not currently anticipated.

- Visibility:
Although confidence in occurrence is not overly-high (especially
given it will likely be more localized versus widespread), at
least sporadic visibility reduction in blowing dust cannot be
ruled out. Previous TAFS hinted at this potential with "6SM
BLDU" groups...and have maintained this in current TAFS focused
15-22Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch