825 FXUS63 KOAX 102312 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thundershowers remain possible this evening mainly over southeast NE and southwest IA. - Scattered showers are possible again on Monday, mainly near/south of I-80. Severe storms and flooding are unlikely. - Mainly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 At 3 PM Sunday, a weak cool front extended from Kearney and Grand Island toward Lincoln, where it intersected an southwestward drifting outflow boundary. This outflow originated from thundershowers in western Iowa and steadily progressed southwest with additional thundershowers developing along it and reinforcing it, but has since waned and just has a few lingering showers. Temperatures behind the outflow are in the 70s, with low 80s elsewhere. Through the next several hours, expect the trend of a few light showers to continue, possibly with a rumble of thunder, but overall much of the area has stabilized and significant storms or rainfall is not expected through this evening. Overnight tonight, a large thunderstorm complex is likely to develop well south of the forecast area, and is likely to stay to the south. Will want to watch potential for showers or a few storms to edge north toward the KS/NE and MO/IA border regions by morning but overall potential is pretty low...especially for heavy rain...so cancelled the flood watch. One interesting thing to watch overnight will be the potential for fog to develop as surface high pressure builds in over the top of some still- elevated dewpoints and pretty widespread wet soil conditions. Winds will be light and there will be some radiational cooling so there seems to be at least some potential for fog with question marks about how dense or how widespread. Monday into Monday night, we`ll still be north of the main storm track, but there are some indications that the next short wave trough could track a bit closer to the far southern CWA. If this happens, could see some decent rainfall in the far southeast parts of the forecast area as it will be slow moving with access to plenty of moisture, but not totally sold on how far north it will track. One way or another, have some decent chances for showers or a few storms, mainly south of I-80 on Monday, and probably not a total rainout other than in the far southeast if the system tracks closer. For the rest of the week, temperatures will be pretty seasonal with highs mainly in the 80s, and picking up into the 90s by late week. There are a few weak short waves that move within reach of the forecast area and could arguably kick off a few storms during the week, but it mostly looks dry with steadily rising height fields through the week trying to push the main storm track back to the north of the area. All told, it looks like a pretty decent week, and likely a break from the recent severe weather and heavy rain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 VFR conditions are favored this evening with calm winds out of the north-northeast. Fog and low-level stratus is expected to develop overnight (after 08-10Z), primarily impacting KOMA and KOFK. Confidence is low in impacts to KLNK at this time. MVFR conditions are expected, though patchy areas of IFR to LIFR conditions will be possible. Fog will gradually improve after sunrise, with the return to VFR conditions expected by 18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Wood