508
FXUS63 KGID 140112
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
812 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The overall-biggest concern of these next few days continues
to be fire weather, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect Monday
afternoon-early evening for our entire forecast area (CWA).
Monday`s Warning has a better chance of verifying/meeting
official criteria than today`s did.
- Rainfall-wise: Although some limited/lucky spots could pick up
a few hundredths of an inch tonight into early Mon AM, at
least somewhat better chances for spotty showers/thunderstorms
arrive around Wed-Thurs and continue intermittently through
next weekend (next Sunday a very PRELIMINARY candidate for the
most widespread rainfall/overall-highest chances).
- Although our CWA is currently a "split situation" in terms of
early-spring vegetation being susceptible to frost/freeze
conditions (our south...especially KS...being more susceptible
versus especially our north/northwest counties), late Mon
night-Tues AM nonetheless brings our first official forecast
inclusion of frost this spring (and a Frost Advisory/Freeze
Warning may eventually be needed for especially our KS zones).
- Temperature-wise: at least a "modest" roller coaster ride will
persist, with highs mainly 60s Mon-Tues, spiking to mainly 80s
Wed-Thurs, then falling back down to mainly 60s Fri-Sun. Lows
most nights should drop no colder than mid 30s-low 50s, with
the main colder exception being Mon night-Tues AM (see above).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025
The Red Flag Warning that was in effect for Gosper, Dawson,
Valley, Greeley, Howard, Sherman and Nance counties this
afternoon has been cancelled. Winds have fallen to below warning
criteria. Relative humidity values have improved to around
25-35% in most locations. With the sun going down over the next
hour, RH values will continue to increase, further decreasing
the chances for critical fire weather for this evening.
A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 1-9pm on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 509 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025
-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE THOUGHTS, CHANGES,
UNCERTAINTIES:
- First a quick "admin note": For all further meteorological
discussion of fire weather concerns, please refer to the
dedicated FIRE WEATHER section below.
- As for forecast changes (versus our previous issuance early
this morning), there appeared to be nothing of much
significance in terms of temperatures, precip chances.
- As already touched on above, we have included a formal mention
of frost potential in forecast products for the first time
this spring for Mon night-Tues AM. At least for now, our 6 KS
counties have been deemed "fully eligible" for potential
Freeze Warnings/Frost Advisory issuance, but we are leaving
our Nebraska zones as a "MAYBE" status for now as they are
less susceptible to vegetation damage per metrics such as
Growing Degree Days (GDD). Later shifts will likely need to
coordinate any possible Advisories/Warnings for Nebraska with
WFO OAX to our east. Either way, Tues AM appears to be the
ONLY morning with legitimate frost/freeze concerns for most of
our CWA over the next 7 days.
- From a "big picture" perspective, the various/intermittent
rain shower/thunderstorm chances that litter much of our
forecast from Wednesday onward are admittedly rather low-
confidence due to various model differences in the "exact"
placement of possible precipitation, differences in available
convective instability (CAPE) etc. That being said, we will
have to keep a wary eye on at least some possibility for
strong to severe storms (it is mid-April after all), perhaps
first around Thursday (note SPC`s current Day 5 severe
potential currently resides BARELY east of our CWA), and then
perhaps again around Sunday (although this is highly uncertain
being a full week out).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 430 PM:
Other than dewpoints/relative humidity (RH) holding up a bit
higher than expected (not a bad thing!) and muting our fire
weather threat somewhat, today has overall turned out very much
as expected, with most of our CWA experiencing a windy and at
least slightly cooler day versus Saturday. In the big picture of
the mid-upper levels, a vigorous shortwave trough is churning
across ND, with our area under brought west-southwesterly flow
to its south. At the surface, a fairly tight pressure gradient
(and deep mixing) has set up between a low over IA and high
pressure nosing southeastward from the northern Rockies. As a
result, today has been moderately-windy from the north-
northwest behind a cold front, with speeds commonly sustained
20-30 MPH/gusts as high as mainly 35-45 MPH. Actual cold air
advection has been fairly weak behind this front, but we`ve
nonetheless seen roughly a 10-degree gradient in afternoon highs
across our CWA, ranging from near-70 far north/northwest to mid
70s central, to upper 70s-low 80s south-southeast.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
While the main forcing/lift within the greater region will
remain well to our north with the vigorous wave churning toward
the Great Lakes, a combination of more subtle lift from an upper
jet streak and a west-east ribbon of mid level
convergence/frontogenesis will support at least some chances for
high-based showers (at least sprinkles?) overnight for various
parts of our CWA. These chances are not high (measurable PoPs
mainly only 20-30% for now), but IF a steadier rain band would
be able to overcome the dry low levels and start precipitating
to the surface, at least a narrow stripe of our CWA could pick
up a few to several hundredths of an inch (at most) overnight.
The overall-highest chances for this limited rain potential
arrive after 10 PM, and will generally sink southward with time.
Cannot totally rule out a few rumbles of thunder (see SPC
"general thunder" area on Day 1 outlook), but any instability
appears quite meager and very elevated (mainly above 700
millibars), so will forego a formal thunder mention for now.
In other departments tonight, following a brief lull in
northwest winds around sunset and a few hours thereafter, speeds
are actually expected to pick back up late this evening-
overnight (gusts commonly 25-35 MPH). These enhanced winds and
what should eventually be plentiful cloud cover should keep
temps from falling drastically, and have lows aimed from upper
30s northwest to mid-upper 40s southeast.
- MONDAY DAYTIME-EVENING:
At least for now, do not have the overnight sprinkle/rain shower
chances extending beyond 7 AM into the official daytime forecast
"block", but this could be a close call (especially for areas
near/south of the KS border) and later shift will have to
monitor radar trends. Overall though, most of our CWA will
surely be dry most of the day, as a secondary shortwave trough
dives southeastward across the Dakotas toward eastern
NE/IA/northern MO over the course of the day. Most of our CWA
should remain just far enough southwest/west to avoid any spotty
showers/sprinkles associated with this wave, but especially our
far north-northeast counties could be an exception, and have
introduced a basic "chance of sprinkles" to this area 5-10 PM.
Otherwise, Monday will be very similar to today wind-wise, with
northwesterly sustained speeds commonly 20-30 MPH/gusts as high
as 35-45 MPH. However, it will be anywhere from 10-20 degrees
cooler than today (depending on location), with highs only upper
50s-low 60s in Nebraska, and mid 60s in KS.
- LATE MONDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
As surface high pressure quickly moves in and allows skies to
clear and winds to lighten (especially post-midnight), the stage
is set for a seasonably-chilly morning Tues with low temps aimed
upper 20s-low 30s most areas. As already touched on a few times,
frost has been added to our official forecast, and at least
parts of especially our southern CWA may need considered for a
Frost Advisory and/or Freeze Warning where vegetation is overall
most susceptible.
- TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY:
Our official forecast remains dry through most of this time
frame, although at least spotty showers and even a few weaker
thunderstorms probably cannot be ruled out as early as Tues
night (probably more favored by Wed daytime-night per some
models). Tuesday will feature a slight warm up (mid 60s to
around 70), and also will have fairly light breezes. Southerly
winds then pick up for Wednesday, allowing highs to surge into
the low 80s most areas (mid-upper 80s possible southwest).
- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
Although plenty of finer details vary between the latest
ECMWF/GFS, especially Thurs-Thurs night features at least SOME
chances for showers/thunderstorms, with Friday looking overall-
drier behind a passing cold front. We`ll need to keep an eye on
at least limited potential for strong/severe storms, but for now
the MAIN instability axis looks to reside to our east during
the Thurs-Thurs night time frame. High temps drop from 80s most
areas Thurs to 60s most areas Fri behind the front.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Although small already, our going rain chances for Sat-Sat night
may be overdone as-is, as latest ECMWF/GFS suggest a dry break
"in between" systems. Then, shower/thunderstorm chances
increase for Sunday as the next large-scale low pressure system
emerges our direction from out of the southwest. That being
said, there is plenty of uncertainty in exact timing of these
heightened rain chances...a lot to sort out. For now, we are
expected to remain in the relatively cooler side of this system,
with high temps only aimed into the 60s both days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions persist through much of the forecast period.
Winds remain breezy from the northwest through the period. A few
passing showers will be possible this evening, clearing out by
05-07Z. There is a small chance for some lower level clouds
moving in overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 509 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025
- REST OF THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
Admittedly, truly critical fire weather conditions appear that
they will be more difficult to come by this afternoon-early
evening than expected 24 hours ago (when the initial Fire
Weather Watch was issued for some of of our far northern/western
Nebraska counties). That being said, solidly elevated to near-
critical conditions will persist across our entire district
through at least 8 PM (and perhaps a bit longer in localized
areas), due to north-northwest winds consistently gusting at
least 25-35 MPH, and relative humidity (RH) bottoming out as low
as 20-30 percent (although the majority of our area probably
won`t drop below 25%). Will let the previously-issued Red Flag
Warning ride for several of our northern/western-most counties
at this time.
This evening-overnight, RH will only slowly rise/recover, and
following an early-evening lull (around sunset), northwest winds
will pick up again overnight with gusts of at least 20-30 MPH
probable. Also this evening-overnight, a band of light
showers/sprinkles will likely affect parts of the district, but
most places are unlikely to receive more than a few hundredths
of an inch at most.
- MONDAY:
Although temperatures will be at least 10-15 degrees cooler than
today, the invasion of a much drier airmass will more than
"compensate" in terms of promoting very low RH levels, and northwest
winds will be similarly strong as today (commonly sustained 20-30
MPH/gusts as high as 35-45 MPH). In fact, RH values are forecast to
bottom out at least 5-10% lower than today in most places...with most
locations as low as 15-20% for at least a few hours. As a result, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for our ENTIRE forecast area valid
1-9 PM.
- TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
At least sporadic, near-critical fire weather conditions are
likely each of these afternoons, but at this time, no particular
day appears as concerning as Monday does.
-- NOTE: NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of
20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).
NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
15+MPH/20+ MPH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wekesser
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Wekesser
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch