483
FXUS65 KMSO 041946
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
146 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated PM showers Thursday, primarily along the divide and
  higher terrain.

- Warming and drying trend through the weekend into early next
  week.

GOES Water Vapor imagery this afternoon highlights a building
ridge of high pressure off the western US coastline, with the
Northern Rockies remaining under the influence of northwest flow.
A weak disturbance, along with impulses of mid-level moisture and
instability, have kicked off scattered shower activity this
afternoon, with a couple storms expected through this evening.
Shower activity will redevelop Thursday afternoon, but will be
more limited in scope, primarily focusing along the divide and
higher terrain.

The ridge will begin to move inland, settling across Inland
Northwest this weekend, leading to a considerable warming trend.
Valley temperatures will reach into the upper-80s to low-90s
Saturday into Tuesday.

The pattern begins to change by the middle of next week, as
global ensembles highlight a Pacific trough breaking down the
ridge (75% of solutions). Under this pattern, moisture and
instability would increase, leading to a favorable set up for
thunderstorms, especially across Lemhi County and southwest
Montana. More to come on this period in subsequent shifts.


&&

.AVIATION...A weak disturbance passing through the region in
northwesterly flow will continue to favor showers and isolated
thunderstorms through this evening, as far west as the
Idaho/western Montana border. These showers may lead to brief MVFR
ceilings and localized reduced visibility. KBTM and KGPI stand
the best chance of seeing a shower through 05/0300z. Winds will
generally be light and terrain driven.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$