298
FXUS65 KTFX 090227
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
827 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures largely remain above average over the upcoming week,
but fall closer to average Thursday behind a weak cold front. This
front looks to bring a narrow corridor of largely light
precipitation to Central Montana Thursday into Thursday night. Areas
of smoke will be around at times through the next week.

&&

.Update...

Evening update has been published, with the main adjustment being
to lower overnight temperatures by 2-5 degrees given decreasing
winds and overall clear skies. The one exception to this was along
and west of the I-15 corridor where a developing Chinook Arch is
expected to remain in place throughout the overnight hours, which
will limit radiational cooling. Otherwise the remainder of the
forecast remains on track, with a weak disturbance lifting
northeast within the southwest flow aloft over Southwest Montana.
This disturbance will provide the opportunity for a few light
rain showers/sprinkles through the remainder of the evening hours
along and south of a Big Sky, to Ennis, to Dillon line. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
09/00Z TAF Period

Other than a passing sprinkle this evening over far Southwest MT
mostly before 01z, quiet weather conditions are expected. VFR
conditions will occur over North Central MT through the period, with
some MVFR conditions over Southwest MT because of reduced visibility
in areas of smoke. I have smoke in the Bozeman terminal for a few
hours Thu morning, as generally that is the time frame the thicker
smoke has been moving through over the past few days. Helena might
need some lower visibility at times overnight as well. Some distant
mountains/passes will be obscured by smoke through the period. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 458 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024/

Through tomorrow night...Broad upper level ridging will be in place
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS through the period.
Although this is the case, there are a couple forecast points of
note. The first of which is an outside chance for a shower across
far southern Beaverhead, Madison and Gallatin counties this
afternoon and evening. Somewhat cool temperatures aloft will result
in sufficient instability for a few showers, with the chance for a
thunderstorm effectively zero. The sub-cloud layer where these
showers look to form is deep and dry, which would limit any
precipitation to be a hundredth or two at most. The limiting factor
with respect to northward extent for showers is due to smoke in the
area, which is the next forecast point of note. Latest high
resolution guidance moves additional smoke in from Idaho through
Wednesday morning, and begins mixing it more efficiently to the
surface during daytime hours Wednesday.

Otherwise temperatures will remain above average, with breezy winds
at times over the plains during daylight hours. Low relative
humidity and marginally breezy conditions between Bozeman and Helena
Wednesday will result in briefly elevated fire weather conditions.

Thursday into the middle of next week... A weak wave traversing
through westerly flow aloft Thursday will aid in sending a cold
front through the area on Thursday. Temperatures fall closer to
average for this time of the year behind the front Thursday, with
areas that have the best chance for precipitation being across
Central Montana Thursday evening. The chance for 0.10" precipitation
in this area is less than 25%.

Otherwise an upper level ridge will largely remain in place through
at least the start of next week. Dry and above average temperatures
are forecast after Thursday, with breezy winds over the plains at
times. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  81  50  64 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  47  74  41  60 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  43  82  47  67 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  39  81  42  68 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  26  70  32  67 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  41  77  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  42  79  47  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  44  80  46  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls