895 FXUS65 KMSO 131923 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms through this afternoon, a few could be strong in southwest Montana A wave of energy will continue to move through western Montana this afternoon, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading from central Idaho through much of western Montana. The main threats with storms will be brief heavy rain and lightning. However, there is potential for a few storms to become strong, mainly near the Continental Divide in southwest Montana. These storms could be capable of gusts up to 50 mph and small hail. The threat for strong storms will largely end after 6pm. Tonight, forecast models show another round of showers developing through north central Idaho and spreading into northwest Montana by early Saturday morning. There is an outside chance of lightning occurring with this wave. Little change is anticipated in the forecast going into early next week. Weak high pressure with southwest flow aloft will continue to favor warm temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms, especially across southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide. && .AVIATION...A shortwave moving through the region will continue to cause cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will primarily be capable of heavy rain and lightning. However a few stronger storms are expected east of and along the Continental Divide. KBTM is the most likely to see stronger convection capable of gusty winds and small hail. The threat of thunderstorms will end pretty quickly after 6pm this evening, however showers will likely linger into Saturday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$