104 FXUS65 KTFX 162254 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 454 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and snow will continue to make their way through the area today, bringing periods of reduced visibility and some areas of slick roads. - Gusty winds could result in some drifting of the snow, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front and in Southwestern Montana. - After a warm and tranquil end to this week, the cool and unsettled weather pattern returns for next week. && .UPDATE... Updated pops over North Central MT this evening, with a widespread area of moderate snowfall moving northeastward through the CWA. Most snow accumulations are on the grassy areas at lower elevations at this time, but do expect reduced driving visibility, along with some slushy snow accumulations, especially on bridges. Brusda && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper level trough will continue to dig into the Northern Rockies today, bringing a cold front and a round of precipitation to the area. Precipitation will start out as a period of rain at lower elevations before quickly changing over to snowfall within a few hours of precipitation beginning. Snowfall will continue to move southward this evening and overnight tonight as the cold front and trough slide further south, and winds will also pick up across Southwestern Montana as the cold front slows, allowing the pressure gradient to strengthen, with the strongest winds expected in the North South oriented valleys. Snow should generally be on the decrease by sunrise on Thursday as this system gets further south, but a reinforcing upper level disturbance could help kick off a few convective snow showers during the afternoon on Thursday. Upper level ridging will build back into the area for Friday and Saturday, which will bring a period of warmer and more tranquil weather to the area for the end of this week. However, zonal flow will set back up as early as Sunday, which will allow for another period of cooler and unsettled weather that will likely last through next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Snowfall accumulations through the next 12-24 hours will largely be dependent on the timing of the changeover to snowfall today and tonight, along with ground temperatures. So far, precipitation has been changing to snow slightly faster than originally forecast, but the strong April sun angle has been keeping accumulations low and generally on elevated/grassy surfaces. Furthermore, pavement temperatures will generally be the biggest factor in impacts with this system, as how quickly the pavement cools off will play a large role in whether or not roadways ice up overnight tonight, along with determining how much accumulates on any paved surfaces. For next week, while confidence is generally high in the overall pattern being on the unsettled side, confidence in any individual system or details that follow from that is quite low at this time. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 16/18Z TAF Period The primary concern this TAF period will be for a cold front moving from north to south through the remainder of Central and Southwest Montana this afternoon and evening, bringing opportunities for mainly snow to the region. Ahead of the front there will be an opportunity for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two in Southwest Montana this afternoon. Low vis/cigs will develop/persist in areas after the cold front moves through, with slow improvement from north to south beginning this evening/tonight in northern areas. Northerly winds will persist across the region behind the front through at least tomorrow morning. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 29 42 23 50 / 100 30 10 0 CTB 23 39 20 51 / 100 20 0 0 HLN 31 42 24 51 / 80 50 10 0 BZN 27 35 16 43 / 90 90 20 10 WYS 22 33 13 40 / 90 90 40 0 DLN 26 34 19 42 / 90 80 10 0 HVR 26 46 21 53 / 100 10 0 0 LWT 26 36 20 44 / 90 60 20 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for East Glacier Park Region-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for Gates of the Mountains-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Thursday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Thursday night for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Canyon Ferry Area- Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Helena Valley- Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Thursday night for Madison River Valley. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls