289
FXUS65 KBYZ 120907
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
307 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight risk (2/5) of severe thunderstorms Friday. Main threats
are strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain.
- There is daily potential for thunderstorms through the coming
weekend; some severe thunderstorms are possible. Monitor the
forecast.
- High elevation snowmelt will allow flows on rivers and streams
to increase into the second half of this week. No flooding is
expected at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Friday night...
Showers and weak thunderstorms over northern and eastern areas were
continuing to pivot around an area of low pressure centered
southern MT overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually
lift into northeastern MT and the Dakotas today, as the low slowly
lifts off to the northeast. Wrap around flow back into southern
MT will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
greatest over the western and northern areas to continue into the
afternoon and evening. Convection is expected to decrease into
tonight for most areas. With recent rain and ample low level
moisture, fog is possible over portions of the area tonight.
Temperatures will be cooler than Wednesday, with highs in the
upper 60s to 70s. Smoke and haze over northeastern ares will
gradually clear out through the morning hours. An Air Quality
Alert remains in effect for Fallon County.
Friday will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to
the area during the afternoon and evening as energy embedded in
southwest flow lifts into the region. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. East to
southeast low level flow will transport moisture into the region,
with PWATs approaching or exceeding an inch, and dewpoint
temperatures in the 50s to around 60 degrees. MUCAPE of 500 to
to as high as 2000 J/kg, deep layer shear of 40-50 kts, and the
aforementioned moisture will bring the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms. SPC currently has a marginal to slight risk
for severe thunderstorms over the area Friday afternoon and
evening. Strong winds, hail and heavy rainfall are possible with
thunderstorms. Convection is expected to decrease into Friday
night. STP
Saturday through Thursday...
Ridging with several shortwaves will persist through the weekend
and into next week. Warm temperatures in the 80s along with PWAT
values generally higher than 0.75" will allow for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Several models depict more than
2000 J/KG of MUCAPE on Saturday, though convection timing and
placement is not certain at this time. The greatest instability
and moisture will be in eastern MT, where PWATs of more than an
inch are shown.
Ensembles generally agree that SUnday through next Thursday will
see an overall unsettled pattern, with zonal flow and weak
shortwaves across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures are currently
forecast to be in the 70s and 80sF with a daily chance for showers
and thunderstorms. The strength of thunderstorms is uncertain at
this time as are precipitation amounts.
Matos
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and weak thunderstorms will gradually lift north and east
into the morning. Periods of MVFR conditions are possible under
heavier storms. Localized fog is possible this morning for most
sites, though it is most likely around KBIL, KMLS, and KBHK. VFR
conditions will generally prevail today, though showers and weak
thunderstorms will be capable of producing periods of MVFR
conditions. Surface and slant range visibilities will improve for
KMLS/KBHK/K97M into this morning, as wildfire smoke disperses.
Matos/STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 054/079 057/083 058/083 058/079 056/077 054/082
2/T 24/T 32/T 44/T 54/T 53/T 31/U
LVM 078 051/077 050/081 050/081 050/078 049/075 047/079
3/T 46/T 32/T 34/T 45/T 43/T 22/T
HDN 075 053/082 056/083 056/085 056/080 055/078 053/081
2/T 24/T 42/T 54/T 64/T 64/T 32/T
MLS 070 054/078 057/083 059/086 059/080 057/077 055/081
8/T 43/T 52/T 53/T 83/T 64/T 32/T
4BQ 076 055/079 058/083 059/085 059/078 057/075 054/079
3/T 23/T 52/T 52/T 63/T 64/T 32/T
BHK 065 051/074 052/078 055/082 056/077 053/074 052/078
8/T 52/W 52/T 52/T 83/T 53/T 32/T
SHR 077 051/080 054/083 053/085 054/078 051/075 049/080
2/T 25/T 33/T 33/T 45/T 54/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
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