996 FXUS65 KMSO 091925 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms capable of gusty outflow winds to 50 mph and lightning today across Lemhi County and southwest Montana - Breezy and dry conditions today, leading to elevated fire weather concerns, and choppy lake conditions. - Cooler, showery and breezy on Thursday, especially in northwest Montana Showers have developed just south of Lemhi County between Challis and Mackay. Looking at mid to lower satellite water vapor channels, there is a swath of elevated moisture tracking northeastwards towards Idaho County and Lost Trail. High resolution weather models depict convective initiation occurring between 1 and 2 pm MDT over the southern Bitterroot Mountains. Temperatures across southern Ravalli County have risen to near 90 degrees. The dewpoints near 40 degrees F suggest that there is a large dry layer at the surface. The primary threat today, besides lightning, will be strong gusty winds. There is a 40 percent probability for gusts near 50 mph from Salmon northwards to Lost Trail Pass, and up to 50 percent chance between Anaconda and Butte. There is a 80 percent chance for lightning in the mountains of northern Lemhi County, north and east to Lost Trail Pass, over the Anaconda Range, Flint Creek Range and Boulder Mountains. You may want to consider avoiding hiking in these ranges this afternoon and evening. If thunder roars, go indoors or to your safe place. Stay away from the tallest object, such as a tree. Do not huddle, but spread out just in case one person is struck and others can render assistance. Gusty winds today will bring choppy conditions on area lakes. On Flathead Lake, southwest winds between 15 and 25 mph are likely this afternoon and evening. As of 1 PM MDT, the Flathead Lake Biological Station`s weather network is depicting south winds steady at 18 mph with gusts to 23 mph. It may be a bit rough for stand-up paddleboarding. There`s a 60 percent probability for gusts exceeding 20 mph on the western shore, at the Narrows and across the North Shore. Thursday will not see as much thunderstorm action, but Glacier National Park could see a few isolated strikes. There is a 40 percent chance for lightning in the higher elevations of the park in the Lewis Range, including the Going-to-the-Sun Road above the hairpin turn, or what is called the "Loop". Also the probabilities are heightened in the mountains above Bowman Lake and Quartz Lake, east of Polebridge. Thursday will be much cooler across the region, generally 10 to 15 degrees cooler in the valleys, but up to 20 degrees cooler in the mountains. Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s, and combined with gusty westerly winds to 30 mph at Logan Pass, it will make for a chilly day...definitely could need a jacket up there! Gusty winds 15 to 25 mph are again possible at Flathead Lake on Thursday. Warm and dry conditions return by the weekend as high pressure rebuilds. Highs will returns to the 80s and 90s, and low 100s in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho (i.e. Orofino, Hells Canyon, and Salmon River valley). Breezy westerlies will develop by Sunday as the precursor effects of a shortwave in southern British Columbia begins to break down the ridge. This wave could be a little stronger than Thursday`s system in that it could bring a better chance for rain and storms, and bring northeast winds to the region by Monday. In terms of the probability for rainfall of at least 0.10" or greater, there is a 30 to 40 percent chance from Eureka to Polson to Helena, and 40 to 50 percent chance across Glacier National Park between Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. This could be important for a lot of farmers and ranchers who are deciding whether they should cut their hay or not. The remainder of our area have much lower chances for rainfall. The general troughing could linger into Wednesday, keeping temperatures tempered a bit and near seasonable levels. && .AVIATION...More widespread thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon through the evening, mainly from north-central Idaho into southwest Montana. Outflow winds will be a concern once again, potentially reaching up to 45 kts. Breezy surface winds from the west to northwest will develop by this afternoon, with widespread gusts approaching 25 kts. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Palouse/Hells Canyon. && $$