046 FXUS65 KTFX 250830 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 230 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal average temperatures are expected for this forecast period. - Today through Thursday there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. - Isolated thunderstorms on Saturday will produce strong to severe wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will warm temperatures up a few degrees to above seasonal averages. This combined with southwest flow aloft will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to form across Central and Southwestern Montana Friday afternoon and evening. Due to dry surface to mid-levels the main risk from any thunderstorms today will be gusty winds and lightning. Saturday through Thursday the upper-level ridge remains over the area. This combined with stronger southwest flow aloft and periodic upper-level shortwaves moving through the upper-level flow will allow there to be scattered showers and thunderstorms across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana each afternoon and evening Saturday through Thursday. At least a few storms will be on the stronger side Saturday through Thursday. Due to an increase in monsoonal moisture with the southwest flow aloft there will be a greater coverage of storms on Saturday than on Friday. Due to an increase in upper-level moisture Tuesday through Thursday, isolated thunderstorms will have the potential to produce flash-flooding. The primarily concerns from any thunderstorm Saturday through Monday will be strong winds and large hail. Saturday through Thursday temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees but generally stay around seasonal averages. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Today there is a 25 - 40% chance for thunderstorms south of the Montana 200/US Highway 87 Corridor between Great Falls and Lewistown. On Saturday the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (5% chance for wind gusts in excess of 58 mph within 25 miles of a point) for all of North-central, Central and Southwestern Montana south of a Teton to Choteau to Blaine County line. On Sunday there is a 20 - 50% chance for thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Monday and Tuesday there is a 30 - 55% chance for thunderstorms across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG && .AVIATION... 25/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions with mainly clear skies and light surface winds prevail through Friday morning. Breezy west to southwest surface winds increase by mid-day Friday under an increasing west- southwest flow aloft. Widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected across SW MT Friday afternoon with cells tracking NE into central MT by Friday evening, affecting locations as far north as KHLN and KLWT. Gusty/erratic winds and lightning are the primary concern with convection late Friday with some terrain obscuration also possible near cells. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 91 55 86 56 / 0 0 10 20 CTB 85 50 80 50 / 0 0 10 10 HLN 91 56 88 55 / 20 20 30 20 BZN 91 52 89 51 / 20 20 20 20 WYS 81 38 80 39 / 20 0 10 10 DLN 85 48 84 48 / 30 20 30 10 HVR 93 55 87 55 / 0 0 10 30 LWT 87 55 84 53 / 10 30 20 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls