515
FXUS65 KBYZ 110803
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
203 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazy conditions are expected to re-enter parts of Montana
Monday. Smoke concentrations are expected to be lower than was
experienced Sunday.
- Mostly dry with a warming trend (80s to mid 90s) through the
middle of the week. HeatRisk level 2 out of 4 forecasted for
Wednesday (the hottest day with mid to upper 90s).
- A lot of uncertainty with what happens for the end of the week.
Cooler and unsettled is now just about equal chances with hot
and dry. Stay tuned to the forecast for more clarity through the
early week period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Tuesday Night...
A weak disturbance in the northwest flow aloft will push a weak
cold front/northerly wind shift through the forecast area this
afternoon. Isolated convection is possible along and behind this
feature, but any precipitation amounts will be very light. Wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph can be expected in and near precipitation
areas. Temperatures will reach the mid 80s this afternoon ahead of
the front. Expect breezy northerly winds with gusts in the 20 to
30 mph range from Billings east by late afternoon.
Winds turn southerly tomorrow, erasing the cool push from the
north. Expect high temperatures to jump into the lower 90s for all
but far southeast Montana, where mid 80s will prevail. Isolated
convection may develop off the western mountains and drift
eastward across southern areas into Tuesday evening. The reason to
downplay convection tomorrow is the very warm 700mb temperatures
pushing +15C. At 700mb temperatures above 12C convection becomes
very difficult to get going unless there is above normal
atmospheric moisture, which in this case there is not. So, this
activity will be very weak with brief gusty winds the main impact
if any storms that do form. Chambers
Wednesday through Saturday...
Wednesday will be warm and dry courtesy of downslope flow.
Temperatures are currently forecast to be in the mid 90s to 100F.
The latest HeatRisk forecast is 2 out of 4 (moderate risk) for
most of southern MT and northern WY, meaning Wednesday`s
conditions will affect those who are sensitive to heat, especially
without cooling/hydration, as well as various health systems and
industries.
The much discussed pattern change in the second half of the week
continues to have disagreement amongst models and ensembles. There
has been a small move towards better agreement amongst ensemble
members though. The current depiction is a potential upper trough
disrupting ridging, late Wednesday into the weekend. Beyond this
slight disruption, the trough seems to back off into the Pacific
instead of driving into the Northern Rockies. An upper low is
shown moving across southern Canada concurrently to the West Coast
trough. If this upper low were to slide south into northern MT or
the Dakotas, this could also bring a different pattern to the
region. Depending on the extent that either disturbance pushes
into the Mountain West, southwesterly flow aloft with surface
winds from the south to southeast could bring Gulf moisture into
the region. The result of this could be an increased chance for
precipitation and storms. There is still uncertainty on high
temperatures, with ensemble spreads showing temperatures around
normal to slightly above normal Thursday and into the weekend.
Matos
&&
.AVIATION...
A front is expected to bring northerly winds back across the
area, today. With this, isolated showers are possible around KMLS
and KBHK, but impacts to the airfields look to be minimal to
none. The northerly winds will also bring wildfire smoke back into
eastern Montana by late today and into early Tuesday morning.
While smoke concentrations look to be less than today, surface
visibility impacts remain possible (moderate chance). LA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 060/092 062/097 062/087 059/087 061/090 061/090
1/N 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
LVM 085 052/091 055/092 054/090 050/087 052/088 052/088
1/U 11/U 12/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 086 057/092 060/098 060/088 058/089 059/091 059/091
1/U 10/U 11/U 10/U 10/U 11/U 21/U
MLS 084 057/087 062/095 063/085 059/085 063/088 063/091
1/N 00/U 00/U 11/U 21/U 21/U 21/U
4BQ 085 057/087 063/095 064/087 062/087 063/089 062/088
1/N 00/U 10/U 10/U 21/U 21/U 21/U
BHK 082 052/083 059/093 060/087 057/083 058/084 058/085
2/W 00/U 11/U 11/U 21/B 22/W 21/U
SHR 085 055/089 058/094 059/088 056/086 057/089 057/088
1/N 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 21/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings