712
FXUS65 KBYZ 072106
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
306 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mountain snowfall on Tuesday will accumulating snowfall to west
facing aspects above 7,000 feet in the Absaroka/Beartooths.
Lower elevation showers and a few thunderstorms possible,
Tuesdayafternoon and evening.
- Breezy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday; gusts 30-45 mph
Tuesday increasing to 40-50 mph Wednesday, greatest along the
western foothills; a 50-70% chance of 50+ mph gusts along the
western foothills Wednesday (expect strong crosswinds on I-90
and US-191).
- Dry and warm conditions Thursday and Friday, trending cooler and
unsettled for the coming weekend (30-50% chance of
precipitation).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Tuesday Night...
Warm and very dry conditions will persist into the evening.
Temperatures across the area are in the 60s to low 70s and minimum
relative humidities between 10-20% have been observed.
Upper level ridging will begin to breakdown with an approaching
shortwave trough, late tonight. The chance for precipitation will
increase in the western mountains first. The chance for
precipitation across the lower elevations will increase late
Tuesday morning and persist through Tuesday evening. Precip will
fall as snow above 7,000 feet in the Absaroka/Beartooths,
bringing 6 to 10 inches of total accumulations through Tuesday.The
greatest snow accumulations will occur on west facing aspects.
Lower elevation precip will be all rain, with showers and a few
thunderstorms forecast. Models depict banding showers along and
south of a Livingston to Forsyth line and areas south. The
greatest chance for thunderstorms exists along and south of US
212. The main threat with thunderstorms will be gusty winds up to
50 mph and small hail.
Ahead of the precipitation tomorrow, westerly winds will increase
with steep lapse rates and 30-40 knot winds at 700mb. The
strongest winds are forecast in the northwest, in the Melville
Foothills and for Harlowton. For relevant wind gust probabilities,
visit weather.gov/byz
High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s, overnight
lows will be in the 30s.
Matos
Wednesday through Monday...
Ensembles and WPC cluster analysis show good agreement in the
overall pattern through Friday, with some differences over the
weekend, although the majority of guidance point to lower
heights.
Northwest flow over the region will continue to produce breezy
conditions over the area, with periods of showers (20-60% chance,
greatest near the mountains and foothills) on Wednesday.
Precipitation amounts look light overall, generally less than a
0.10 inches. West to northwest wind gusts of 20-45 mph can be
expected across much of the area, with westerly wind gusts of
45-55 mph possible along the western foothills. The probability of
exceeding 50 mph at Livingston, Big Timber and Harlowton is
currently 50-70%. Winds and showers decrease into Wednesday night
as high pressure builds into the Northern Rockies from the west.
Warm and dry conditions then look to prevail for Thursday and
Friday, with relatively light winds. Friday will be the warmest
day of the week with the ridge axis moving overhead and
compressional warming ahead of the next potential system over the
weekend.
Heading into the weekend, an upper trough is progged to move
through the region, with an associated upper low, or open wave
depending on the ensemble solution. There is a lot of uncertainty
in precipitation timing, placement, type and amounts. That being
said, cooler and unsettled conditions are forecast Saturday
through Monday with periods of mountain snow, lower elevation
showers and wind. The current probability of exceeding 0.25 inches
of precipitation over the weekend is between 25-50%, greatest over
and near the mountains. Monitor the forecast if you have outdoor
plans for the coming weekend.
Temperatures are forecast to range from the 50s to lower 60s on
Wednesday, warming into the 60s on Thursday, with 70s to around 80
degrees on Friday. Temperatures then look to cool off back into
the 60s to lower 70s on Saturday, with 40s to 50s Sunday and
Monday. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through tonight, with increasing mid and high
clouds moving in from the west, ahead of an approaching
disturbance. Winds will remain breezy at times along the western
foothills, including KLVM to K6S0, where westerly gusts of 25-35
kts are possible. A disturbance and associated cold front will
move through the area on Tuesday bringing mountain snow and lower
elevation rain showers/thunderstorms. Local MVFR conditions are
possible with the shower/thunderstorm activity. Mountain
obscurations will increase tonight into Tuesday. STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/063 039/061 034/069 043/079 048/069 041/059 036/056
14/W 22/W 00/U 00/B 24/W 65/W 32/W
LVM 041/056 036/055 033/067 042/074 046/064 037/053 032/051
34/W 22/W 00/B 00/B 25/T 65/W 32/W
HDN 043/065 037/062 032/067 039/080 045/072 039/060 034/056
15/T 33/W 00/U 00/B 23/W 65/W 32/W
MLS 045/065 039/061 037/064 040/077 047/070 042/059 037/056
02/W 11/N 00/U 00/B 12/W 44/W 32/W
4BQ 042/065 039/060 038/064 039/077 047/072 042/061 037/055
03/T 31/N 00/U 00/B 01/B 34/W 22/W
BHK 035/065 035/058 032/062 035/074 043/070 039/058 032/054
02/W 11/N 10/U 00/B 11/B 33/W 22/W
SHR 040/062 035/057 031/064 036/077 043/071 036/058 031/054
14/T 34/W 00/U 00/B 13/W 45/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings