040
FXUS65 KGGW 080220
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
820 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Scattered light rain showers will move into the region from
the west overnight.

2) Gusty west to northwest winds Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon
and evening will impact early season recreation out on Fort Peck
Lake. A Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake has been issued for
Tuesday from 10 am to 8 pm.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Evening update: Short term models this evening are showing higher
wind speeds for Tuesday afternoon. The RAP and HREF Grand Ensemble
are showing west winds 15 to 30 mph over the western half of the
forecast area which is strong enough to issue a Lake Wind Advisory
for Fort Peck Lake. The main update to the forecast will be to
increase wind speeds on Tuesday.

Previous Discussion: Upper ridging will give way to the upper
trough off the Pacific Northwest moving onshore. The next round of
light rain showers looks to occur tonight and Tuesday, with total
QPF amounts remaining under 0.10" for most places.

On Tuesday afternoon, gusty winds and low RH may elevate fire
weather concerns for a time but not for widespread or prolonged
enough exposure to merit issuing headlines at this time.

HREF and NBM show CAPE/Shear profiles supportive of an isolated
thunderstorm or two on Wednesday. The main concern operationally
will be developing west to northwest winds ranging from 15 to 25
mph with gusts to 35 or 40 mph, resulting in the potential for the
First Lake Wind Advisory for the season for Fort Peck Lake.

Upper ridging will resume warm and dry conditions over the region
late week before the next rough arrives for the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was used for much of the forecast period, but NBM 90 was
blended in for Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is high on gusty
weather conditions for a time that afternoon with more widespread
gusty west winds on Wednesday. Lower confidence exists on showers
tonight and Tuesday as well as thunderstorm potential on Wednesday
given marginal support and isolated coverage.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail into tonight though lower ceilings
will move in this evening from the west. Showers are also possible
overnight and Tuesday. SE winds 5 to 15 knots tonight will become
west Tuesday morning and increase to 15 to 25 knots Tuesday
afternoon.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Central
and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-
McCone-Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow