390
FXUS65 KMSO 100706
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
106 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Near-record daytime high temperatures today.

-  A few strong storms this afternoon and again Wednesday
   afternoon and evening.

-  Cooler late this week with daily afternoon showers and
   thunderstorms.


Hot temperatures will continue across the Northern Rockies today, with many
locations approaching daily record highs. The ridge axis does
shift eastward today, allowing southwesterly flow to develop over
the region. This pattern will support the formation of scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Model guidance highlights the most likely areas for storm development
along the Divide and into southwest Montana. Any storms that form this
afternoon could produce gusty, erratic winds, with stronger cells
generating gusts up to 50 mph.

This southwesterly flow continues into Wednesday as two weak disturbances
move through the area. The first is expected to pass from southern Idaho
County into Lemhi County and southwest Montana during the morning, bringing
scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. A second
disturbance will follow a similar path in the afternoon and may trigger
additional thunderstorms. These storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds.

Looking ahead to Thursday and into the weekend, the southwest flow aloft
persists. While temperatures will ease compared to earlier in the week,
highs will still reach the mid-70s to 80s or around 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms remain likely, especially along the Continental Divide
extending into Lemhi County.

&&

.AVIATION...Hot temperatures continue today but the ridge of high pressure
will begin to shift east this afternoon, opening the door for a developing
southwesterly flow pattern. This shift will bring modest mid-level moisture
and instability, supporting the development of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along the Continental Divide. Activity may impact terminals
such as KSMN and KBTM between approximately 10/2000Z and 11/0200Z
with vicinity shower potential at remaining terminals. Watch for
gusty outflow winds to near 40 kts near stronger showers and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms dissipate this evening but showers and isolated
thunderstorms return Wednesday morning, especially from I-90
southward as a weak disturbance pushes through.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$