256 FXUS65 KTFX 110957 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 357 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy day over North Central MT today. - Increasing chances for rain and snow tonight over Southwest and Central MT. - Snow Sunday over Central MT, which could be impactful in some areas. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: The main concern today will be the potential for gusty winds later this morning and this afternoon over North Central MT, as a Pacific cool front approaches the area. The strongest winds will affect the Rocky Mountain Front and the Cut Bank area, but overall wind gusts should remain below warning criteria. On Saturday, an upper level disturbance will move northeastward through Southwest MT and Central MT. The GFS is more aggressive with the precipitation. Should the GFS pan out, the snowfall could be a bit heavier Saturday morning over the Kings Hill area. Otherwise, most areas of Central/Southwest MT will have some passing rain/snow showers. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible in the Big Sky and West Yellowstone areas. For Sunday, and upper level trof will move across MT. Overall, the models are in good agreement with this feature. The GFS continues to have higher precipitation amounts and stronger winds than other models. This now looks to be a fairly quick moving system, with most of the precipitation over with by late Sunday afternoon. For next week, just a few passing light showers later in the week as the airmass becomes a bit unstable. Overall, expect a nice warming trend, with afternoon temperatures about 15 degrees above normal by the end of next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The two concerns this morning are the potential for heavier snowfall on Saturday morning over Kings Hill. Again, should the GFS pan out, a winter weather advisory might be needed for a short time with the heavier snowfall on Saturday morning. For Sunday, the GFS has the higher precipitation amounts, but it is also a bit lower than it has been. Now it is looking mostly like a winter weather advisory will be needed for portions of Glacier Park and the Kings Hill area. Strong winds are still expected, which could cause some impacts with reduced visibility. Brusda && .AVIATION... 11/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail during the duration of this TAF period. It will be windy at the KGTF, KCTB, and KHVR terminals from about 11/13Z to about 12/04Z. At the KBZN, KEKS, and KLWT terminals there is a 20 - 40% chance for rain between 11/23Z and the end of the TAF period. There will be isolated instances of low-level wind shear and mountain wave turbulence across North-central Montana between now and 11/18Z. -IG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 67 42 57 33 / 10 30 40 50 CTB 59 34 52 29 / 0 0 20 70 HLN 68 43 54 33 / 10 50 60 20 BZN 70 40 53 27 / 10 40 90 40 WYS 63 33 54 18 / 10 30 90 40 DLN 70 41 58 26 / 10 20 60 10 HVR 69 36 62 31 / 0 0 20 70 LWT 65 39 51 29 / 10 60 80 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls