812 FXUS65 KTFX 072100 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - It will warm up this afternoon through Wednesday. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to Southwestern Montana Tuesday afternoon and to all areas on Wednesday and Thursday. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to Southwestern Montana Tuesday afternoon and to all areas on Wednesday and Thursday. - There will be a brief cooldown on Thursday and Friday before it warms back up for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: An upper-level ridge is building in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana this afternoon. This upper-level ridge will remain over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana through Wednesday evening. This will bring dry weather to the area this afternoon through Wednesday morning outside of a few isolated thunderstorms in Southwestern and Central Montana Tuesday afternoon and evening. It will also bring hot temperatures to all of the lower- elevations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Tuesday and Wednesday. For most lower-elevation locations these will be the hottest temperatures of the year so far. On Wednesday due to a strong surface pressure gradient and approaching surface cold front it will be windy with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Wednesday afternoon/evening an upper-level trough associated with a surface cold front will begin to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday the upper- level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will cool down temperatures to below seasonal averages and due to southwest flow aloft bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday afternoon and evening. On Friday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will dry out the area and allow temperatures to warm up. On Saturday and Sunday there will be northwest flow aloft over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which will allow temperatures to warm to above seasonal averages each day with mostly dry conditions. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Tuesday there is a 10 - 30% chance for high temperatures of 100 degrees or greater along the Milk River and Missouri River Valley in North-central Montana. On Wednesday there is a 40 - 60% chance for high temperatures of 100 degrees or greater along the Milk River and Missouri River Valley in North-central Montana. Across much of North- central Montana east of I-15 there is greater than a 60% chance for high temperatures greater than 95 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Across much of North-central Montana east of I-15 there is greater than a 60% chance for low temperatures greater than 60 degrees on Wednesday morning. Across much of North-central Montana east of I-15 there is a 20 - 40% chance for low temperatures greater than 64 degrees on Wednesday morning. As a result a Heat Advisory was issued for the lower elevations of Cascade County, Choteau County, Hill County, and Northern Blaine County from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. On Tuesday there is a 15 - 20% chance for thunderstorms in Southwestern and Central Montana. On Wednesday there is a 15 - 20% chance for thunderstorms across North-central Montana and a 30 - 40% chance for thunderstorms across Central and Southwestern Montana. On Thursday there is a 30 - 60% chance for thunderstorms across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday there is a 60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Elsewhere across much of North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 35 mph or greater. -IG && .AVIATION... 07/18Z TAF Period With high pressure building in at the surface and aloft, expect nearly perfectly clear skies with light winds across the area today. Winds will increase along the Rocky Mountain Front early on Tuesday as westerly flow aloft strengthens. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 95 61 96 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 51 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 57 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 53 95 55 95 / 0 0 10 10 WYS 40 84 41 84 / 0 10 20 10 DLN 51 90 52 90 / 0 0 20 10 HVR 56 98 61 99 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 54 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for Cascade County below 5000ft-Hill County-Northern Blaine County- Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls