939 FXUS65 KMSO 061907 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 107 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot and mostly dry weather is expected for the first part of the week. - A brief reprieve from the hot temperatures is expected on Thursday, as a weak cold front increases wind and thunderstorm chances. A departing trough along the Montana/Canadian border will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to areas east of Highway 93 in Flathead County and along the Continental Divide, extending south to Powell County. Elsewhere, seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions are anticipated. High pressure will build over the Northern Rockies on Monday and Tuesday, bringing a warming trend and mostly dry weather. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible each afternoon over Lemhi County and southwest Montana, where lingering moisture and modest instability remain in place. Temperatures will run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year through Wednesday, with Tuesday likely being the hottest day. There is more than a 90 percent probability that temperatures will exceed 100 degrees in areas around Riggins and Highway 95 from Kooskia to Orofino, Idaho, on Tuesday. The valleys of western Montana are expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Ensembles agree on a disturbance flattening the ridge later Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures will return to seasonable levels by Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances, along with breezy westerly winds, will also return Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, especially along the Divide and the Canadian border. There is a 70 to 90 percent probability that gusts will reach or exceed 30 mph in the valleys and mountains north of I-90 Wednesday afternoon. Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected Friday into next weekend as the ridge bumps back up. Weak disturbances in southwest flow open up the potential for a few thunderstorms in this pattern. && .AVIATION... Scattered showers today in northwestern Montana decreasing in coverage by 06/2400z. Brief terrain obscurations are possible near and north of GPI. Ridgetop winds remain out of the west at 7-15 knots. Peak wind gusts at most terminals will reach up to 20 knots through the early evening. Continued drying into Monday with lesser chances for any showers or storms. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$