259 FXUS63 KSGF 162324 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - 40-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Thursday Morning along and north of Interstate 44. Marginal risk for large hail to the size of quarters. - Breezy conditions on Thursday with southerly wind gusts up to around 30-40 mph with localized gusts to 45 mph west of Springfield. - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend. Rain chances remain high (greater than 80 percent). Excessive rainfall could cause elevated river levels and flash flooding this weekend. Rainfall amounts greater than one inch are likely area wide. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows mid level ridging occuring across the central US out ahead of an upper low just off the California coast. 850mb warm air advection is ongoing from Texas into Oklahoma and Kansas with some cloud cover and even a few showers across Kansas. Surface high pressure east of the region has allowed for a return to southerly winds however the low levels remain dry with dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This combined with wind gusts around 25mph has created elevated fire conditions, especially in forested areas. This afternoon through this evening: Low level moisture will continue to increase this afternoon and evening to the west of the area and we think that those sprinkles/light showers will mostly evaporate if they do move into the area this evening. However have included about a 10-20 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm this evening north and west of Springfield if they do maintain themselves. Otherwise, temps will rise into the lower 70s this afternoon with southerly wind gusts. Overnight through Thursday: The low level jet will begin to increase after 10pm across Oklahoma and Kansas and we are seeing indications of two areas of shower and thunderstorm development overnight. One area will be a little farther removed from the low level jet across central Missouri (areas from Rolla and points north and east). This would mainly be from 10pm-3am (smaller time window). The higher chance for showers and storms will come after midnight, especially after 3am as an area of showers and storms more closely aligned with the low level jet develops across central Kansas. Latest HREF reflectivity paintball guidance continues to suggest this activity will move into southeast Kansas and western Missouri after 3am and moves generally through areas along and north of I-44 through sunrise, exiting after 9am. Generally looking at elevated instability (500-1000j/kg MU CAPE) and wind shear around 40-50kts. This could lead to a few severe storms producing large hail. Highest chances for a severe storm will be along the Highway 54 corridor. Also expecting frequent cloud to ground lightning with this activity and locally heavy rainfall. Latest HREF LPMM qpf forecasts do show a few pockets of 0.5 to 1 inch of rain with this activity as it moves west to east overnight/Thursday morning. Otherwise the clouds and southerly winds will keep readings much warmer than last night. Once storms move east of the area mid morning Thursday, an effective warm front will lift north of the area and winds will turn southwesterly. This will usher in a elevated mixed layer (CAP) with 850mb temps of 18-23C and partly cloudy skies. These 850mb temps are above the 90th percentile for this time of year and we have raised temps into the lower to middle 80s for the western half of the area. If skies clear quicker then we may need to raise temps even further. NBM90th percentile has high temps in the upper 80s across most of the area and this could be realized if skies clear quicker. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Friday through the weekend: Ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a long wave trough will develop and move through the Rockies with southwest flow aloft across the central US. A cold front will slowly slide southeast during the day Friday across Kansas into northwest Missouri however recent trends slow the front down as the flow becomes parallel. Therefore, it is looking more likely that any shower and thunderstorm development will hold off until late afternoon or evening as a strong CAP will be in place ahead of the front. This could lead to high temps again in the 80s if enough sunshine develops. However by Friday night, upper level support/lift will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms across the area as the front moves through. Early look at forecast soundings generally supports a damaging wind and hail threat given the flow out of the southwest. PW values are forecast to be in the 1.3-1.5in range which is 150-200 percent of normal. Therefore a moist airmass, nearly stationary front and southwest flow aloft will likely lead to several rounds of showers and storms lasting through Saturday. A slight risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall exists Friday night and again Saturday. The system begins to eject out into Missouri Sunday and Sunday night with the final push of rainfall. Depending on instability and exact location of the front, there could be a severe threat, especially across southcentral Missouri Sunday. Latest NBM probabilistic rainfall continues to show high chances (50-70%) of at least 2 inches of rainfall across most of the area with the potential for a corridor around 3 inches. Latest consensus for heaviest rainfall is along the I-44 corridor from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri however this could shift some depending on exact frontal placement. This will likely lead to a flash flooding risk and some increases to area rivers given the HEFS data. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed for the weekend. Those with outdoor plans this weekend will need to make alternate plans given the thunderstorm and flooding potential. Monday and Tuesday: Ensembles differ on the evolution of the pattern early next week with 20-30 percent rain chances Tuesday depending on the arrival of the next shortwave. There is the potential though of shortwave ridging which could hold off rain chances to closer to mid week. Temps look seasonal during this timeframe. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR ceilings through the evening with southerly winds gusting up to 25 knots overnight. Thunderstorms move in after midnight mostly for areas along and north of I-44 bringing MVFR ceilings in and around these storms. Expect VFR conditions to return by late morning and winds to increase on Thursday up to 35 knots. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Soria