871
FXUS63 KEAX 090358
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1058 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warming temperatures through the work week - 10+ deg F above
  normal through Saturday

* Cold front drops temperatures closer to normal highs Sunday into
  next week
  - Chance for first freeze early next week, mainly N Missouri

* No substantial precipitation chances over the next 7+ days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Understandably, much of the CONUS weather attention continues to be
directed toward the Gulf of Mexico and Hurricane Milton and its
forecast path and impacts on Mid-Florida late Wednesday/early Friday.

Locally, weather continues to be abundantly quiet. With a surface
high dominating the region, morning lows were quite crisp in the
lower 40s for most, and upper 30s for some outside of urban areas.
Ensemble guidance has predominantly been a couple/few degrees too
warm of late on lows, especially during efficient diurnal cooling
setups, so would not be surprised if lows undercut current forecast
for Wednesday morning by a degree or two as surface high influence
lingers. No impacts of substance regardless, with lows in the 40s.

Large scale picture next few days will be dominated by the departing
surface high and upper level ridging spreading across central CONUS.
This will result in persistent light (10 mph or less) southerly
winds and WAA through the remainder of the work week and to start
the weekend. Ensemble and NBM guidance are in good lock step
(25th/75th MaxT spreads of only 2 degrees) with gradually warming
temps, a couple degrees each day, likely topping out Friday in the
mid to upper 80s across the area. Warmest west. Those temperatures
will also represent highs 10+ degrees above normal this time of the
year.

Cooler temperatures and understandably wider 25th/75th temperature
spreads creep in through the weekend as the upper ridge flattens and
troughing digs into the western Great Lakes out of the Canadian
Plains. An initially weaker cold front will begin to drop through
the Plains Friday but struggle to reach the area, before a
reinforcing cold front pushes through sometime Saturday evening or
overnight. Within guidance, there are some hints at possible
precipitation with this frontal passage, but dry air mass in place
and strongest lift displaced N/NE does not lend much hope. As such,
official forecast remains dry with the frontal passage. Of more note
will be the coolest/coldest temperatures of the season in the fronts
wake, including the potential first freeze for portions of northern
Missouri Tuesday morning. NBM guidance has trended colder early next
week, introducing lows at or within a degree or two of freezing over
the northern tier or two of counties. Of note though, and before
anyone gets too worked up or excited, temperature spreads are quite
large by this point of the forecast, including 25th/75th spreads of
7 to 8 deg F. Currently those spreads represent roughly 30 to 38 deg
F within the forecast. Coldest lows look to be that Tuesday morning
(Wednesday morning no slouch either) with surface high overhead,
then gradually warming as southerly winds look to return. Expect
highs early next week in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Aside from the very low chance at precipitation during the weekend
frontal passage, a weak upper wave will slide through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Synoptic deterministic
guidance continues to hint at a few showers/weak convection chances
just to the W/SW where the better/deeper lift will reside. Within
the available CAM guidance, the NAM nest is the most aggressive (no
surprise) while others are largely non-existent. Can`t rule out just
being clipped by this activity, but high confidence in wave
trajectory/path appears likely to keep activity just on the CWA
doorstep. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

With surface high centered over northern Missouri, slowly
drifting SE, quiet VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be light, under 5 kts, through much of the
period. Late in the period, winds will settle out of the S
across the TAF sites, but remain light around 5 to 7 kts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR conds will prevail with clr skies expected thru this TAF
cycle. Winds will be lgt out of the SE to SSE less than 7kts
thru the pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...73