520 FXUS63 KEAX 250917 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 417 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous flash flooding remains possible early this morning from eastern Kansas into western and northern Missouri. This includes the Kansas City Metro area. - The flash flooding potential continues this afternoon into Saturday Morning, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River. There could also be a few strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening from northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri. - Hot and humid conditions return this weekend and persist through the middle of the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Southwest flow aloft overriding a surface to low-level stationary front with strong moisture transport feeding in from the south continues to promote widespread thunderstorms with very heavy rain across the region this morning. Through 4 AM, the highest rain amounts have generally been located along the I-70 and Missouri River corridors, as well as southern and eastern portions of the Kansas City metro area. Of lesser concern this morning, dense fog has developed near the northwest corner of Missouri, with zero to quarter mile visibility reported consistently from Nebraska City to Clarinda, IA over the last few hours. Will continue to monitor, but for now the dense fog appears to be holding just outside the stateline. Very little change in the synoptic pattern is expected today, although the surface/low-level frontal boundary could push slightly northward. A mid-level shortwave and associated MCV currently over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles is forecast to eject northeastward into the southern Missouri River Valley later this afternoon, sparking additional rounds of thunderstorms. A continuous stream of poleward moisture transport with greater than 2 in. precipitable water (at or above the 99th climatological percentile) will continue to promote a dangerous setup for flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall through tonight. Due to the location of the heaviest rainfall overnight and a slight southward shift in the ensemble mean QPF footprint, the segment of the Flood Watch that remains in effect until 4 AM this morning has been expanded southward, and now includes Johnson County in Kansas and Jackson to Saline to Macon Counties in Missouri, and all other counties in both states to the north. Counties to the south that remain under a Flood Watch still have an expiration time of 10 AM this morning. While the potential for additional flash flooding remains the greatest concern for convection later today, there could also be a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a weak tornado, though confidence in the latter being a threat is low. Forecast deep layer shear only around 25 to 30 kts will be a limiting factor preventing more widespread severe storms. HREF UH tracks show the highest likelihood of a stronger to severe storm to be along and northwest of I-35. Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Saturday, but there is a much lower risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall. The NBM then favors a period of drier weather through Tuesday before 20 to 40 percent chances for showers and storms return mid week. The greatest concern for the long term forecast period is the potential for excessive heat as a dome of high pressure builds over the southern CONUS this weekend into next week. Sunday through Tuesday looks to be the most concerning time period, with forecast highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s yielding maximum heat indices around 105 to 110 each day, possibly pushing 115 on Monday. The upper ridge is then favored to retreat westward for the second half of next week, allowing a cooler and slightly less humid air mass to approach from a seasonably strong surface high pressure over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Off and on showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area overnight and through tomorrow. Some of these may affect the terminals with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Vsbys may be reduced at times along with the presence of low cigs. Cigs are low at 3 of the 4 terminals currently and look to remain IFR for a while. Winds are fairly light and variable and will be out of the southeast tomorrow. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>032-037>039. Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ033-040- 043>046. KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-102>105. Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO BIS/Hollan AVIATION...WFO PAH/Hickford