187 FXUS63 KSGF 020457 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1157 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke continuing to result in hazy skies. - Confidence continues to increase in an active pattern returning Tuesday and continuing through the week, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%). - Keeping an eye on the Tuesday-Sunday period for heavy rainfall and flooding concerns, especially considering already- elevated reservoirs and saturated soils. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 A complex surface setup is evident today, with a stationary front draped along the eastern Missouri border and localized regions of both high and low pressure over east central Missouri. Subtly surface troughs extend from the low pressure center; one to the west to connect with another low in northern Oklahoma and another to the south into Arkansas. Flow over southwest Missouri is very weak, vaguely counterclockwise around the low at around 5 mph. There is a very low (<10%) chance of a stray thunderstorm in the far eastern portion of the area this afternoon as residual shortwave energy moves out. Cloud cover will be minimal today and tonight, but wildfire smoke continues to advect into the area with northerly flow aloft, which will give the sky a hazy white look and may filter sunshine a bit. This smoke is not expected to have much surface impact, at least today. We will top out in the low 80s for high temperatures today and cool down into the low 60s for lows tonight. High level smoke continues for Monday, though no clouds in earnest until the evening. Winds pick up out of the south tomorrow, allowing for warming into the mid-80s. Somewhat surprisingly, this is only a few degrees above normal for this time of year - summer has truly arrived!...for a couple of days, anyway. Clouds begin to build in through the evening and overnight, keeping lows near 70 in the west but cooling into the low 60s in the east. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Speaking of summer, we will have the chance for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. A deep low-level trough pushes a front into the area beginning early Tuesday morning. It is unclear what storm mode we will be dealing with, but systems like these tend to congeal into a line or line segments by the time they make it this far east. Instability does increase throughout the day, so while convection may be ongoing at sunrise, it may not become severe until later. The severe risk could be argued secondary to the risk of flooding this front brings to the area. After pulling tons of moisture into the area from the gulf, the front will stall over the Ozark plateau, allowing for training storms with very efficient rainfall consistently for several days. PWATs are forecast to be on the maximum end of climatology. This is especially an issue because of recent flooding the area is still dealing with in the form of elevated lakes and rivers as well as saturated soils. While the risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday is only "Slight", the constant precipitation chances through the rest of the forecast period could add up. Totals from Tuesday through Saturday are currently forecast at 3 to 6 inches. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Will have to watch for patchy fog development across portions of the eastern Ozarks near 10Z this morning; but low confidence precluded any mention of fog at the terminal sites. Light winds early this morning will increase with afternoon mixing, occasionally gusting up to 15-20 kt. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Didio