136 FXUS63 KEAX 051944 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Thunderstorms Through Sunday...isolated downbursts possible. - Seasonably Warm and Humid Through This Week - Additional storms expected Monday night into Tuesday...severe weather threat appears low at this time. - Additional storms expected Friday night into Saturday...severe weather may be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have impacted much of the western CWA this morning while this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the eastern CWA where temperatures have risen to the upper 80s to 90 degrees. This is our first round of showers and thunderstorms for today. The second round will come this evening into tonight as a weak cold front sags into the area. A few localized strong storms capable of downburst winds cannot be ruled out which is evidenced by inverted-V soundings however DCAPE values due not appear to be strong and overall shear is weak. Consequently, the severe threat is very low with storms this evening into tonight. The sagging cold front is expected to stall in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor by tomorrow morning. This will become the focus for renewed convection late tomorrow morning into the afternoon as models depict a subtle upper level shortwave moving through the region. Model soundings again reveal an inverted-V sounding for tomorrow with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000J/Kg however, shear remains extremely weak mitigating any more than a isolated downburst scenario. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid 80s across the north behind the front to near 90 across the southern CWA ahead of the front. This front is progged to remain across the southern CWA tomorrow night into Monday continuing the slight chance (15%-25%) for storms along and south of Highway 50. Highs Monday are again expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90. For Monday night into Tuesday models are hinting at a mid-lvel shortwave that is expected to move through the region on quasi-zonal flow. The NAM is faster and further south with this feature than it`s GFS counter part and produces an MCS over the area Monday night. The GFS is further north, slower, and weaker with this feature which would keep the bulk of the storm activity north of the area. This feature will need to be monitored for severe potential Monday night into Tuesday. Another mid-level trough will move through the region on the day Tuesday into Tuesday night forcing a cold front into the area and bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Despite the NBM holding onto slight chance and chance PoPs (20%-40%) for Wednesday models are suggesting surface high pressure building into the area providing for dry conditions. Dry conditions look to then persist through Friday before a strong upper level trough moves into the northern Plains Friday night into Saturday which will bring the next potential for strong to severe storms. Temperatures through the work week are expected to remain near seasonal normals with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR conds are expected thru most of the TAF pd. The main concern for aviators will be the chc for lgt tsra at the TAF sites btn 01Z-05Z out ahead of a slow movg cold front. Models are hinting at the poss of MVFR cigs late in pd behind the front aft 12Z-14Z. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts thru 08Z when winds will veer to the WSW and diminish to 5-10kts. The cold frontal passage is expected btn 10Z-14Z veering winds to the W/NW while remaining btn 5-10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...73