421 FXUS63 KSGF 252334 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity continue through at least next Tuesday. Daily highs in the lower to middle 90s with maximum afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105+. Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7PM Tuesday. - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The main potential hazards will be wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and localized flash flooding. - Confidence increasing in cooler temperatures by the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Current Conditions and Forecast Through Tonight: Water vapor imagery depicts a large upper-level ridge across the southeastern U.S. The Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas remain on the western periphery of this ridge with a weak southwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level short wave trough is located across north-central Kansas and is forecast to slowly lift northeast. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary from northern Kansas into the southern Great Lakes. The remainder of the afternoon and early evening will be hot and humid with afternoon temperatures on track to top out in the lower to middle 90s. Afternoon heat indices will again range from 100-105 degrees, with a few isolated pockets of heat indices in the 106-109 degree range. The Heat Advisory is in good shape. The prospects for pulse thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will generally remain at or below 10% given sub-optimal moisture profiles in the middle and upper atmosphere. The "best" potential for a pop-up storm would be across Oregon and Shannon Counties where precipitable water values and mid-level relative humidities will be slightly more favorable for updraft development. Otherwise, attention tonight will again be to the west and northwest closer to that frontal boundary and short wave trough. Additional clusters of thunderstorms are again expected, especially as a south to north oriented low-level jet becomes established across eastern Kansas. Wind fields in conjunction with any developing cold pools will support these clusters largely tracking to the northeast or east-northeast. This would largely keep activity to the northwest of the Missouri Ozarks. 12Z CAM paintballs strongly support this scenario. Nevertheless, we will keep a close eye on this activity tonight as more aggressive cold pools and/or a slight shift in the location of that low-level jet could support activity clipping areas north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Warsaw, Missouri line. Chances for this occurring are less than 20%. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Saturday: Short-term ensembles show good agreement that mid and upper level moisture will increase from the south throughout the day. The resulting precipitable water and vertical humidity profiles would typically be supportive of afternoon pulse thunderstorms. The one negative factor will be slightly rising 500 mb heights. With that being said, we have opted for 20-30% PoPs for what is expected to be isolated to widely scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. The experimental Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index does indicate some localized pockets approaching the "moderate" category for severe downburst potential. However, two of the best predictors in this index (vertical totals and 925 mb temperatures) are running at or below the 25th percentile. Thus, we will advertise wind gusts up to 50 mph with a few of the stronger storms. Given the increasing moisture and slow storm motions, there will be a localized flash flooding threat with these storms. Otherwise, the main story for Saturday will be the continued heat and humidity. Temperatures at the 850 mb level will remain in the 20C to 22C range. Conditional climatology of those 850 mb temperatures supports highs once again in the lower to middle 90s. These temperatures are also backed by small NBM interquartile spreads in this temperature range. With dew points again ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s, afternoon heat indices will climb into the 100-105 degree range, with isolated pockets in the 106-109 degree range. The Heat Advisory will therefore continue. Sunday through Tuesday: Global ensembles show good consensus that the upper level ridge will slowly retrograde to the west and become established right over or just south of the Missouri Ozarks. This will result in continued heat and humidity with perhaps a slight uptick in temperatures, especially on Monday and Tuesday. The going Heat Advisory covers this well. We will need to keep an eye on dew points as some locations could approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria if dew points can remain elevated. However, global ensembles and the synoptic scale setup actually seem more supportive of dew points falling a few degrees. Thus, overall heat indices would stay relatively unchanged. Wednesday through Friday: Global ensemble clusters show good consensus that the upper- level ridge will continue to retrograde to the west and slightly weaken. This will eventually put the Missouri Ozarks into a northwest flow aloft. This would then support a cold front finally getting into the area with slightly cooler temperatures and increasing potential for thunderstorms. Timing of the front is still in question that far out. A slower arrival would likely require an extension in heat headlines into at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A scattered low (5kft) cu deck across southern Missouri this evening, with some high cloud debris shedding off the storm complex near Kansas City. Southerly winds 8-14kts this evening will decrease slightly to 5-10kts overnight, with the low cu dissipating shortly after sunset. Low (<30%) chance for isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Camden