421
FXUS63 KSGF 252334
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through at least next Tuesday.
  Daily highs in the lower to middle 90s with maximum afternoon
  heat index values around 100 to 105+. Heat Advisory remains in
  effect until 7PM Tuesday.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
  The main potential hazards will be wind gusts up to 50 mph,
  frequent lightning, and localized flash flooding.

- Confidence increasing in cooler temperatures by the end of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Current Conditions and Forecast Through Tonight:

Water vapor imagery depicts a large upper-level ridge across
the southeastern U.S. The Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas
remain on the western periphery of this ridge with a weak
southwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level short wave trough is
located across north-central Kansas and is forecast to slowly
lift northeast. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain
nearly stationary from northern Kansas into the southern Great
Lakes.

The remainder of the afternoon and early evening will be hot and
humid with afternoon temperatures on track to top out in the
lower to middle 90s. Afternoon heat indices will again range
from 100-105 degrees, with a few isolated pockets of heat
indices in the 106-109 degree range. The Heat Advisory is in
good shape.

The prospects for pulse thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will generally remain at or below 10% given sub-optimal
moisture profiles in the middle and upper atmosphere. The "best"
potential for a pop-up storm would be across Oregon and Shannon
Counties where precipitable water values and mid-level relative
humidities will be slightly more favorable for updraft
development.

Otherwise, attention tonight will again be to the west and
northwest closer to that frontal boundary and short wave
trough. Additional clusters of thunderstorms are again expected,
especially as a south to north oriented low-level jet becomes
established across eastern Kansas.

Wind fields in conjunction with any developing cold pools will
support these clusters largely tracking to the northeast or
east-northeast. This would largely keep activity to the
northwest of the Missouri Ozarks. 12Z CAM paintballs strongly
support this scenario. Nevertheless, we will keep a close eye on
this activity tonight as more aggressive cold pools and/or a
slight shift in the location of that low-level jet could support
activity clipping areas north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Warsaw,
Missouri line. Chances for this occurring are less than 20%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Saturday:

Short-term ensembles show good agreement that mid and upper
level moisture will increase from the south throughout the day.
The resulting precipitable water and vertical humidity profiles
would typically be supportive of afternoon pulse thunderstorms.
The one negative factor will be slightly rising 500 mb heights.
With that being said, we have opted for 20-30% PoPs for what is
expected to be isolated to widely scattered coverage of
afternoon thunderstorms.

The experimental Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index does
indicate some localized pockets approaching the "moderate"
category for severe downburst potential. However, two of the
best predictors in this index (vertical totals and 925 mb
temperatures) are running at or below the 25th percentile. Thus,
we will advertise wind gusts up to 50 mph with a few of the
stronger storms. Given the increasing moisture and slow storm
motions, there will be a localized flash flooding threat with
these storms.

Otherwise, the main story for Saturday will be the continued
heat and humidity. Temperatures at the 850 mb level will remain
in the 20C to 22C range. Conditional climatology of those 850
mb temperatures supports highs once again in the lower to middle
90s. These temperatures are also backed by small NBM
interquartile spreads in this temperature range. With dew points
again ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s, afternoon heat
indices will climb into the 100-105 degree range, with isolated
pockets in the 106-109 degree range. The Heat Advisory will
therefore continue.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Global ensembles show good consensus that the upper level ridge
will slowly retrograde to the west and become established right
over or just south of the Missouri Ozarks. This will result in
continued heat and humidity with perhaps a slight uptick in
temperatures, especially on Monday and Tuesday. The going Heat
Advisory covers this well. We will need to keep an eye on dew
points as some locations could approach Extreme Heat Warning
criteria if dew points can remain elevated. However, global
ensembles and the synoptic scale setup actually seem more
supportive of dew points falling a few degrees. Thus, overall
heat indices would stay relatively unchanged.

Wednesday through Friday:

Global ensemble clusters show good consensus that the upper-
level ridge will continue to retrograde to the west and slightly
weaken. This will eventually put the Missouri Ozarks into a
northwest flow aloft. This would then support a cold front
finally getting into the area with slightly cooler temperatures
and increasing potential for thunderstorms. Timing of the front
is still in question that far out. A slower arrival would likely
require an extension in heat headlines into at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A scattered low (5kft) cu deck across southern Missouri this
evening, with some high cloud debris shedding off the storm
complex near Kansas City. Southerly winds 8-14kts this evening
will decrease slightly to 5-10kts overnight, with the low cu
dissipating shortly after sunset.

Low (<30%) chance for isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Camden