876 FXUS63 KSGF 132327 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and windy conditions will continue this this evening with wind gusts of around 25 to 35 mph at times. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return during the middle of the week and again next weekend. Still questions on the exact timing of the system but it looks to be unsettled with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a flattening ridge axis over the central U.S. as a northern stream trough shifts across the northern plains. West-southwest flow aloft was bringing in some Pacific moisture ahead of the trough. Lower in the atmosphere, a surface front was just to our east and strong low level warm advection with 30-50 mph winds has brought temperatures into the mid 70s to low 80s. We`ve had JLN, FSK and SGF reach the wind advisory criteria and will maintain for now. It currently goes until 5 pm. Rest of the afternoon and tonight: indications are for the winds to begin slowly diminishing over the next several hours with the front starting to move into the area from the west and the low level jet shifting east and out of the area. Won`t be canceling the advisory early until we drop quite a bit at SGF/JLN. The front should make it through the area tonight and we`ll see an increase in mid level cloud cover. Can`t rule out some sprinkles or a stray shower, but not enough to go above 10 pops with best upper level support remaining north of the area. We`ll remain fairly mild again tonight with the colder air lagging behind the front with lows tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s. Monday into Monday night: The cooler air mass will dive southeast with the upper level trough and jet streak on Monday with the coldest part of the air mass remaining to our northeast. Most areas will cool down on Monday quite a bit from today though with highs from the mid 60s in the north to low/mid 70s in the southeast and lows in the low to mid 40s Monday night. Conditions should remain dry with a dry air mass moving into the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Cooler temperatures continue into Tuesday and Tuesday night as the surface ridge moves over the area. Tuesdays highs will be in the mid 60s for most locations with lows Tuesday night from the mid 40s in the west to the mid 30s in parts of the east. Unsettled conditions with several chances of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through the weekend: The surface high will shift east of the area on Wednesday and we`ll start to get return southerly flow on the back of this surface ridge. This flow will strengthen with a developing low to the west during the day Wednesday. Gulf moisture and instability should increase during the day Wednesday and continuing into Wed night when a low level jet will develop over the area and some shortwave energy will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of this first chance of showers and thunderstorms, a warm front will push through the area on Thursday that will bring the area into the warm sector with a significant thermal cap developing during the day. While this is happening, a closed upper low will become cut-off over the southwest U.S. as a northern stream system tracks southeast into the plains. This will begin to slowly move the front through the area and with some mid level cooling, the thermal cap will be eroded late in the day Friday. Convection should develop along the front as this occurs and we are currently outlooked in a 15% risk area form SPC for severe storms. With southwest flow aloft ahead of the low cutting off in the southwest, the surface front is not expected to get too far south of the area and as this system begins to kick out over the weekend, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the area for Saturday. This looks to continue outside of the 7 day forecast into Sunday and Monday. There are still some timing differences with these features Friday into the weekend which will have an effect on the precipitation timing, amounts and with temperatures over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Gusty surface winds will begin to fall of of the peaks from this afternoon though some gusty from 25 to 35 mph will remain possible into tonight. A cold front will approach and move through the region overnight with winds shifting out of the north behind the front. Other than the wind shift, no additional impacts to aviation are forecast though middle to high ceilings are expected in the wake of the front into Monday morning and afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Hatch