675 FXUS63 KLSX 110935 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 435 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost are likely tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s. - Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend with gradually warming temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 The latest radar mosaic and surface observations was showing light scattered showers lingering across the area early this morning. These showers were occurring along a cold front that extends northwest across central Illinois into Iowa. The latest run of the HREF is showing this front undergoing frontolysis as it slowly shifts to the southeast which should bring an end to the showers and light sprinkles by mid morning. The low clouds that is associated with the front will likely stick around through midday which will have an impact on temperatures, so have dropped going highs back by a few degrees. The HREF is also showing a large scale upper ridge building into the area beginning late today through Saturday which will keep the area dry. There will be strong radiational cooling over the area late tonight as a surface ridge will move into the area causing the winds to turn light under clear skies. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s promoting areas of frost. After the cold start on Saturday, the winds will turn out of the south on Saturday under a sunny sky. With almost full sunshine, highs will be in low to mid 60s. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 The cluster analysis is showing that there is overall good agreement that a trough will drop down out of south central Canada into the Midwest and Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. The LREF is showing the attendant cold front moving across the CWA on Sunday night, though the 00Z NAM has it moving through the area slightly faster with limited instability. Will keep with isolated showers and thunderstorms with the passage of this front late Sunday night into Monday as system will be cut off from moisture by a high located over the northern Gulf. There will be another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday as the LREF is showing another trough dropping down across Missouri and Illinois from the northwest. 30- 50% of the LREF members are showing a chance of showers mid to late next week. Sunday will be the warmest day ahead of the cold front (highs in the 70s and lower 80s) before highs drop into the 50s and 60s on Monday and Tuesday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Mainly dry conditions are expected through the period with northerly winds at 10 knots or less. MVFR ceilings (1500-3000 FT AGL)will move into all of the terminals by 15Z before moving out between 16-20Z. Then VFR conditions are expected the rest of the period. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX