365 FXUS63 KEAX 261737 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The flash flooding potential continues overnight into Saturday Morning, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River due to repeated thunderstorms moving over the same areas. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again Saturday afternoon from west-central MO toward northeast MO. - Hot and humid conditions return this weekend and persist through the middle of the next week. - Wetter conditions are expected to return late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 A shortwave trough continues to move across the state overnight into Saturday morning, with ample large scale lift for numerous showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere is very moist tonight, with precipitable water values around 2 inches, which is near the maximum for this time of year. The main weather concern in the near term will be impressive rainfall totals on already saturated ground, leading to a flash flooding threat overnight for locations that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Rainfall rates under thunderstorm cores are expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch per hour range. Currently, high-resolution forecast models focus this threat on areas north of the Missouri River. A Flood Watch remains in effect until the early morning hours for the areas most likely to be affected. The most recent models lessen the intensity of overnight convection, and radar trends this evening have been in line with this latest trend. However, vigilance is encouraged nevertheless, as flooding is harder to detect overnight. Saturday will see another round of scattered thunderstorms with a more marginal chance for continued flooding and severe weather concerns. Otherwise, a drier pattern in store through mid week under a strong upper level ridge. As a result, temperatures will be back on the rise and more of concern for excessive heat headlines. Afternoon high temperatures back into the 90s Sunday onward through Tuesday with heat index values over the 105 degree mark due to the higher humidity values. Once this ridge breaks down and pushes back west, expect not as high temperatures in the afternoon with the next chances for precipitation Wednesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds remain mostly southerly through the day today. There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. However confidence is high enough to keep them out of the TAF as they are expected to remain east of the terminals. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ033-039-040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025- 057-060-102>105. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO EAX AVIATION...Collier