365
FXUS63 KEAX 261737
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The flash flooding potential continues overnight into Saturday
  Morning, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri
  River due to repeated thunderstorms moving over the same
  areas.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again
  Saturday afternoon from west-central MO toward northeast MO.

- Hot and humid conditions return this weekend and persist
  through the middle of the next week.

- Wetter conditions are expected to return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A shortwave trough continues to move across the state overnight into
Saturday morning, with ample large scale lift for numerous showers
and thunderstorms. The atmosphere is very moist tonight, with
precipitable water values around 2 inches, which is near the
maximum for this time of year. The main weather concern in the near
term will be impressive rainfall totals on already saturated ground,
leading to a flash flooding threat overnight for locations that
receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Rainfall rates under
thunderstorm cores are expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch per hour
range. Currently, high-resolution forecast models focus this threat
on areas north of the Missouri River. A Flood Watch remains in
effect until the early morning hours for the areas most likely to be
affected.

The most recent models lessen the intensity of overnight convection,
and radar trends this evening have been in line with this latest
trend. However, vigilance is encouraged nevertheless, as flooding is
harder to detect overnight.

Saturday will see another round of scattered thunderstorms with
a more marginal chance for continued flooding and severe weather
concerns. Otherwise, a drier pattern in store through mid week
under a strong upper level ridge. As a result, temperatures will
be back on the rise and more of concern for excessive heat
headlines. Afternoon high temperatures back into the 90s Sunday
onward through Tuesday with heat index values over the 105
degree mark due to the higher humidity values. Once this ridge
breaks down and pushes back west, expect not as high
temperatures in the afternoon with the next chances for
precipitation Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds remain mostly
southerly through the day today. There is a chance for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. However
confidence is high enough to keep them out of the TAF as they are
expected to remain east of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ033-039-040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...Collier