926
FXUS63 KEAX 281902
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
202 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trend not quite as hot this afternoon -
  Wednesday, then noticeably cooler and less humid conditions
  for the weekend.

- Active weather pattern sets up through the end of the workweek
  with multiple chances for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows the axis of
the upper ridge roughly along or just east of the Rockies. This
places the middle to lower Missouri Valley within northwesterly flow
aloft. At the surface, we`re in a bit of a pressure col with high
pressure building into the Great Lakes. This surface high will
become more established overnight and allow for weak easterly
to southeasterly low-level winds to develop. This sets up an
area of low to mid-level convergence from north-central KS into
southeastern MO and it`s this area of convergence that will
help lead to an area of showers and storms developing overnight
into tomorrow morning. Through the overnight, isentropic ascent,
aided by the low to mid- level convergence, develops adding
some forcing needed for precipitation. Severe weather is not
expected with this activity. The forecast area remains at that
interface of the high pressure to our east and westerly mid-
level flow over the Plains. This keeps an area of convergence
and isentropic ascent situated across eastern KS and western MO
through Thursday, leading to multiple chances for showers and
storms in the area. Severe weather chances remain low through
Thursday with relatively weak flow aloft limiting shear.

A stronger shortwave trough will move across the Northern
Plains/ Upper Midwest Thursday night - Friday. This will help
push a cold front through the area and lead to the best chances
for precipitation through this forecast period. The threat of
severe weather continues to look low, with marginal shear and
instability present. But PWAT values over 2" and strong moisture
transport into the area, locally heavy rainfall looks possible.

In the wake of this system, cooler and drier air will move into the
area for the weekend. Highs should top out in the low to mid 80s but
after a week of dewpoints in the middle 70s to lower 80s, dewpoints
in the low to mid 60s will be noticeably drier.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected (>95% chance) through the forecast.
Clouds, associated with a departing/weakening MCV, will give way
to partly to most sunny skies this afternoon/ evening. Mid and
high level clouds should return overnight with another area of
showers/ storms developing to the west of the area. Winds will
be light/variable through the day and trend to the east-
southeast to southeast tomorrow, remaining less than 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB