641 FXUS63 KSGF 061831 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 131 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Localized wind gusts up to 50 mph and heavy rainfall are possible with the strongest storms. - Additional rain chances (20-60%) Monday through Saturday this week. Highest chances in the afternoon and evenings. - Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Convective initiation began late this morning with the cu field becoming increasingly agitated this afternoon. A cold front was draped across central Missouri, with increasing moisture convergence to the south of the boundary. While most if not all activity is expected to remain sub-severe, RAP mesoanalysis depicts MUCAPE values around 2500 J/kg, 0-3 km theta-e differences of 25 deg C, and fairly steep low-level lapse rates, which may support locally strong wind gusts up to 50 mph. This potential is supported by the Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index. Intensity will diminish after 10 PM, though a few CAMs linger showers ahead of the stalled front, so we have maintained some low-end PoPs (20-40%) across southern Missouri overnight. Given the high moisture content and slow storm motion, we will have to monitor for locally heavy rainfall. In fact, the 12Z HREF LPMM suggests localized amounts up to 3-4 inches. Most locations will see less than these amounts, however, so widespread flooding is not expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Monday-Saturday: Little change to the ensemble suite was noted for the long-term forecast; that is, a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft with transient embedded shortwave disturbances will allow for intermittent rain chances throughout the week. Currently, the lowest rain chances (15-30%) are on Thursday. NBM percentiles support climatologically average temperatures each day, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to initiate across the region this afternoon and last through the evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of reducing visibilities down to 1 SM or less due to heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40-45 kt. While most convection looks to wind down after 03Z, a few stray showers may linger overnight. Scattered storms look to refire again tomorrow afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio