454
FXUS63 KSGF 262316
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through at least Tuesday. Daily
  highs in the lower to middle 90s with maximum afternoon heat
  index values around 100 to 109. Heat Advisory remains in
  effect until 7 PM Tuesday.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into
  this evening. The main potential hazards will be wind gusts up
  to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and localized heavy rainfall.

- Confidence increasing in cooler temperatures by the end of
  next week. Daily rain chances (20-40%) will occur at times
  during the middle and end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Upper level ridge was centered over the southeast U.S. early
this afternoon with the western portion of the ridge extending
into the Ozarks region. Upper level storm system was located
over CA/NV with shortwave energy extending northeast out of that
into the Rockies. Some mesoscale boundaries were aiding in the
development of some showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
over the Ozarks region: 1 from near Fort Scott KS to near
Versailles, MO and another from near Branson, MO to Salem.
Convection has been very pulsey and would expect this to
continue through the afternoon and evening. Have trended these
two areas: one to the northwest of I44 and one over south
central MO for the higher coverage of pops during the afternoon
and evening, maxing out at around 40% coverage. In between, the
coverage will be less and have generally gone around 15-20%. Not
expecting any severe weather, however if a stronger storm can
develop, wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. Coverage
should decrease after 10-11 pm.

Temperatures this afternoon will rise back into the low to mid
90s in most locations with heat index values from 100 to 109.
Nighttime lows are expected to only dip back into the mid 70s. A
heat advisory continues through 7 pm Tuesday.

Better moisture will shift over the eastern Ozarks on Sunday
where the better chance for isolated to scattered pop up
thunderstorms will be possible again in the afternoon and
evening, generally east of U.S. 65. Hot and humid conditions
will continue with highs again in the low to mid 90s and heat
index values from 100 to 109.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The upper level ridge will begin to shift westward on Monday and
Tuesday of the upcoming work week and should limit thunderstorm
chances to around 10% or less(isolated). The heat and humidity
will persist under the ridge however with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 109 degree range
during the afternoons and early evenings.

By the middle to end of next week, the ridge will continue to
retrograde westward and we`ll see a weak northwest flow develop
over the region which will bring some upper energy and shower
and thunderstorm chances back to the area. Cooler temperatures
will be possible by the end of next week, with highs by Friday
in the low to mid 80s and nighttime lows back in the 60s by
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Primarily VFR conditions will continue through Sunday. There
remains a 20-30% chance for a thunderstorm through 02Z this
evening around Springfield and then around Branson Sunday
afternoon. A few showers are expected early this evening in the
vicinity of Joplin.

If storms are able to move into the vicinity of Springfield
and/or Branson, there would be the potential for gusty and
erratic winds in addition to MVFR and brief IFR conditions.

Outside of storms, surface winds will remain light out of the
south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann