147
FXUS63 KSGF 231720
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1120 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather ahead this week. The highest rain chances
  occur Monday night through Tuesday night (60-90%) with the
  highest amounts generally along and south of the I-44
  corridor. No severe thunderstorms or flooding expected.

- Rain will clear out by mid-morning on Christmas, with
  temperatures in the upper 40s to mid-50s and overcast skies
  for the holiday.

- Additional rain chances (50-70%) by Thursday into Friday. Low
  potential for a few thunderstorms and some nuisance flooding.

- High confidence in above normal temperatures this week. Highs
  through mid-week in the upper 40s to middle 50s. By late week,
  highs reach into the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Current conditions and synoptic overview:

Current water vapor satellite well-illustrates the mid-level trough
pushing into the Northern Plains from Canada, while the nighttime
microphysics RGB shows a low stratus deck moving into our area.
Aloft, flow is wavy and disturbed, with 00Z upper air analyses
showing a deep, positively-tilted ridge extending through the
entire vertical column elongated up the West Coast into the
Canadian Rockies. At 300mb, a trough is evident from Kansas
into central Texas (the remnants of a closed low from the days
prior); flow is largely zonal across the CONUS at 500mb, and a
deepening trough in the lowest levels is pushing south into the
Rockies.

Monday-Tuesday:

Monday into Tuesday, the flow aloft becomes even more split.
A trough will extend from the central US to the south into
southern Texas; zonal flow will set up over Missouri and Iowa,
and a ridging pattern to the north will extend from southern MN
into the Hudson Bay. Dew points will continue to increase as
the low-level jet continues to advect warm, moist air into our
area, and several smaller embedded shortwaves will provide
pockets of lift. Shower chances increase above 15% Monday
morning as these pockets of energy spin into the Ozarks while a cold
front approaches from the north. PoPs will increase gradually
from west to east along the plateau through the day, rising
above 50% generally along the I-44 corridor from west to east
after sunset tonight as the primary burst of the early-week
shortwave energy arrives.

Rain will be primarily focused along the moisture gradient where the
fronts converge, with the northern edge of the rain shield likely to
fall between I-44 and Hwy 54 on Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will
increase with southwestward extent, with the most likely totals
falling in the 1-1.25" range in far southwest Missouri, and
HREF PMMs in this same range increase confidence in this outcome
as well. Overall, there is about a 50% chance that our entire
area will see at least 0.01" of precipitation over this period.
Instability will be all but nonexistent this far north, so
chances of thunder are <5%.

We end up stuck in a really funky deformation zone between the
low to our northeast and the low to our southwest by Monday
evening. Ultimately, the southern low will prevail and dictate
our area`s conditions Tuesday as the Alberta clipper quickly
lifts northeast. Monday`s temperatures in the low to mid 50s
won`t change much as we get into Tuesday, with Tuesday`s highs
in the upper 50s only a few degrees cooler than Monday`s.

Christmas:

Rain will clear from west to east from Christmas Eve into
Christmas, with PoPs falling below 30% for most areas around
midnight and rain ending in the eastern Ozarks early Christmas
morning. Highs will again be in the upper 40s to mid-50s, so
with near-zero PoPs and unseasonably warm temperatures the
chances of a white Christmas are 0%.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Thursday into the weekend:

The pattern stays warm, progressive, messy, and active through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The next
shortwave pushes off the southern Rockies and lifts through the
Plains on Thursday, bringing 50-70% rain chances back Thursday
evening. This second shortwave ejection of the week looks to be
stronger than the first, with better moisture return and the
northern fringes of instability reaching into Missouri per most
ensemble members. Thus, our thunder probabilities will increase
up to ~20%, but strength of convection will depend on how well-
timed and how collocated the fast-moving synoptic ingredients
align with convective ingredients. Ensembles continue to trend
into better agreement with each other on synoptic evolution,
which points more towards thunderstorms, but the variability
between ensemble members still leaves predictability low for how
the late-week system evolves.

Nonetheless, there is enough of a signal that all of the
necessary severe weather ingredients could be present at some
point, in some location, that it`s worth monitoring as the week
continues. Any thunderstorms would likely only be marginally
severe, but convective storms with more efficient rainfall rates
could pose a minor risk of flooding. The WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook keeps Marginal flooding risk to southwest of our area
in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. Another round of rainfall
may come again over the weekend, with rain chances of 25-40%
persisting through the weekend.

Temperatures will remain warm through the week as we stay under the
influence of southerly flow in the low-levels. Gradual warming will
come to a head over the weekend, with a 35-60% chance of reaching
60 degrees or warmer on Saturday. Temperatures will remain highest
the further south you are. Longer range forecasts provide a 72%
chance of above normal temperatures through January 1, keeping
us warm into the new year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A system moves into the area today with rain chances and reduced
flight conditions. Expect MVFR ceilings to continue to gradually
build into the area this afternoon with ceilings around 1500 to
3000 feet. A few scattered light rain chances may occur from mid
afternoon through mid-evening, as depicted by the PROB30 group.
As we progress through the evening, ceilings and visibilities
deteriorate further with more widespread rain showers. IFR
ceilings around 700 to 900 feet in addition to reduced
visibilities around 2 to 4 miles at times. Some instances of
LIFR may develop towards Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, southerly
winds at 5 to 10 knots become light and variable through this
evening into Tuesday morning. This system impacts the area
through Tuesday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 27:
KSGF: 50/1946Forecast: 46

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Camden