454 FXUS63 KSGF 262316 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity continue through at least Tuesday. Daily highs in the lower to middle 90s with maximum afternoon heat index values around 100 to 109. Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM Tuesday. - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. The main potential hazards will be wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and localized heavy rainfall. - Confidence increasing in cooler temperatures by the end of next week. Daily rain chances (20-40%) will occur at times during the middle and end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Upper level ridge was centered over the southeast U.S. early this afternoon with the western portion of the ridge extending into the Ozarks region. Upper level storm system was located over CA/NV with shortwave energy extending northeast out of that into the Rockies. Some mesoscale boundaries were aiding in the development of some showers and a few embedded thunderstorms over the Ozarks region: 1 from near Fort Scott KS to near Versailles, MO and another from near Branson, MO to Salem. Convection has been very pulsey and would expect this to continue through the afternoon and evening. Have trended these two areas: one to the northwest of I44 and one over south central MO for the higher coverage of pops during the afternoon and evening, maxing out at around 40% coverage. In between, the coverage will be less and have generally gone around 15-20%. Not expecting any severe weather, however if a stronger storm can develop, wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. Coverage should decrease after 10-11 pm. Temperatures this afternoon will rise back into the low to mid 90s in most locations with heat index values from 100 to 109. Nighttime lows are expected to only dip back into the mid 70s. A heat advisory continues through 7 pm Tuesday. Better moisture will shift over the eastern Ozarks on Sunday where the better chance for isolated to scattered pop up thunderstorms will be possible again in the afternoon and evening, generally east of U.S. 65. Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs again in the low to mid 90s and heat index values from 100 to 109. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The upper level ridge will begin to shift westward on Monday and Tuesday of the upcoming work week and should limit thunderstorm chances to around 10% or less(isolated). The heat and humidity will persist under the ridge however with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 109 degree range during the afternoons and early evenings. By the middle to end of next week, the ridge will continue to retrograde westward and we`ll see a weak northwest flow develop over the region which will bring some upper energy and shower and thunderstorm chances back to the area. Cooler temperatures will be possible by the end of next week, with highs by Friday in the low to mid 80s and nighttime lows back in the 60s by Friday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Primarily VFR conditions will continue through Sunday. There remains a 20-30% chance for a thunderstorm through 02Z this evening around Springfield and then around Branson Sunday afternoon. A few showers are expected early this evening in the vicinity of Joplin. If storms are able to move into the vicinity of Springfield and/or Branson, there would be the potential for gusty and erratic winds in addition to MVFR and brief IFR conditions. Outside of storms, surface winds will remain light out of the south. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Schaumann