195
FXUS63 KEAX 162340
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact the region
  early tomorrow morning.
     - A few storms could be strong to marginally severe, with
       large hail being the primary hazard.

- Conditional threat for severe storms tomorrow evening, mainly
  for far NW Missouri.

- Conditional severe threat again on Friday, mainly for areas
  south and east of Kansas City.

- Widespread intermittent showers and thunderstorms are likely
  Friday evening through Saturday night, primarily toward the
  northern edge of the Ozarks (south and east of Kansas City).

- Widespread showers and storms are likely across the entire
  region on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Mid/upper ridging is building in from the west today out ahead
of troughing off the coast of Southern and Baja California,
which has yielded mid level height rises and warmer temperatures
across the region this afternoon (3 pm temperatures range from
the lower to mid 70s), as well as breezy southerly winds. A few
elevated showers have developed this afternoon, but with
surface dewpoints still in the 30s, only a few sprinkles have
managed to make their way down to the surface.

By later tonight, a progressive open wave will move southward
out of Canada and phase with the aforementioned upper level low
near the California coast. The subtropical jet will spread
eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded
shortwave disturbances translating through the flow. Meanwhile,
a 50+ knot southwesterly low level jet is progged to develop
across central Kansas, with theta e advection increasing
dewpoints into the low to mid 50s by early Thursday morning. CAM
guidance suggests convection developing across south central
Kansas by late this afternoon, with another round of convection
developing INVOF Salina KS by the early overnight. This is
progged to quickly grow upscale into a cluster of storms or
even an MCS as it approaches the MO/KS border by around 4 AM
Thursday morning, moving west to east across the KC metro and
surrounding areas through around 8 AM. A few stronger storms
will be possible on the southern edge of this system (likely
south of the KC metro), with large hail being the primary
hazard. Dry conditions are likely after these showers/storms
pass by mid Thursday morning.

For Thursday, large scale troughing is progged from southern
Saskatchewan southward into the Great Basin, with 50+ knot WSW
mid level flow continuing across the Plains and into our CWA.
Meanwhile, a deepening surface low will shift eastward across
the north central High Plains. Very warm temperatures are
likely for Thursday afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s for
most locations. This will be paired with strong southerly winds,
with sustained winds up to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 to 35 mph.
Convection is likely to develop along a frontal boundary around
5 pm tomorrow from SW Minnesota into eastern Nebraska, with this
moving eastward through the evening hours. Convective
inhibition thanks to a strong EML looks to remain stout across
our CWA tomorrow afternoon/evening, and at this time CAMs do
not initiate any storms for our region. However, SPC has
maintained the marginal to slight risk across our region due to 1500
J/kg of ML CAPE and 50+ knots of deep layer bulk shear present,
with large hail being the primary hazard.

The surface low is progged to track into far NW MO by early
Friday morning, with the associated cold front moving northwest
to southeast through the region. Current guidance suggests the
front may be draped from roughly Kansas City to Lamoni by
around noon Friday. Strong to severe storms will be possible
along and ahead of this front thanks to the combo of decent
moisture, modest instability, strong deep layer shear, and
forcing from the front. However, the EML and CIN may still be
too strong to allow for deep convection, so at this time it
remains a conditional severe threat. This front will likely
stall out somewhere across the Ozarks as we head into Friday
night and through Saturday night, with intermittent showers and
storms likely across far southern and southeastern portions of
our region toward the Ozarks, with total rainfall amounts on
the order of 2". Locally heavier amounts leading to some hydro
concerns will be possible, with WPC highlighting southern
portions of our CWA within a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. On Sunday, the mid/upper trough across the Southern
Plains is progged to finally eject across the central CONUS,
with the surface low moving from Oklahoma into eastern Iowa.
This will bring better chances for widespread showers and storms
northward to the remainder of the CWA, with half an inch to an
inch of rainfall possible to areas the will likely miss out on
the bulk of the rain Friday evening into Saturday night. Much
cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday and Sunday, as
well.

Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are likely for Monday,
with chances for showers/storms returning on Tuesday (30 to 40
percent).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Gusty southerly winds persist through the period. Some models
suggest a potential for decoupling for a brief period during the
overnight bringing a break in wind gusts. Showers and
thunderstorms form along the KS I-70 corridor early Thursday
morning moving eastward through the terminals around 09Z-10Z.
RA with some VCTS/TSRA is expected with higher TSRA
probabilities south of MCI/MKC. Storms exit after sunrise, but
lowered CIGs look to linger through much of Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Pesel