578 FXUS63 KEAX 110854 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 354 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Near to above normal temperatures over next week plus - Warmest days will be this weekend ... 70s Sat, 80s Sun - High temp normals around mid 60s across the area * Best precipitation chances not until mid-late next week - Low end (<20%) shower chances overnight Sunday into Monday - Moderate (20-50%) shower/thunder chances Wednesday/Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 A predominantly quiet and pleasant 7+ day forecast ahead with near to above normal temperatures and a couple precipitation opportunities, though at least one of them are trending drier. But before we get into those details... Shortwave trough responsible for widely scattered showers and evaporatively enhanced gusty winds has shifted SE/away within the larger NW upper level flow. Hot on its heels is another shortwave trough, currently over Iowa and showing up nicely on WV imagery. Unlike shortwave that moved through during daytime Thursday, nocturnal timing of this wave and poor lapse rates within the profile result in nil instability. Expect primarily low to mid-level cloud cover to result near and east of Highway 65 through morning, dissipating during the afternoon. Shortwave will also help suppress temperatures a few degrees over yesterday as it ushers in 850mb temps approaching 0 deg C in conjunction with light northerly surface winds and surface high pressure building in. This will likely result in temperatures near to a few degrees below normal in the mid-upper 50s (east) to mid-upper 60s (west). Generally a pleasant spring day, especially as cloud cover dissipates. Western CONUS ridge begins to build into the Plains/central CONUS Friday and through the weekend, but its effect will not be felt locally until the weekend. As surface high departures Friday overnight, southerly winds return, beginning a two-day warming period. Developing surface low pressure over Colorado Front Range will tighten surface gradients and push southerly wind gusts into the 20s if not lower 30s mph, primarily over NW Missouri and areas westward into Kansas Saturday. Surface low moves off of the Front Range late Saturday in response to approaching northern stream shortwave trough, shifting winds more southwesterly by Sunday and peak wind gusts in the 20s to mid 30s mph eastward across Missouri. Coupled with rising 850mb temps through the weekend, into the teen deg C by Sunday, high temperatures will jump around 10 deg F each day... mainly 70s Saturday and up to the mid 80s Sunday. The warmup will short lived though as a cold front associated with the northern stream shortwave trough and its surface reflection pushes across Missouri late Sunday into Monday, dropping highs back towards normal in the 60s. Flagship synoptic models and their ensembles continue to trend drier with this frontal passage. Between GFS/Euro ensembles, only about 20% of members show any precipitation with frontal passage limited by dry air in place and inability to overcome strong capping inversion. Ribbon of mid-level moisture is present, but that alone appears unlikely to result in precipitation reaching the ground with no available instability dry air to overcome. As the parent shortwave trough sweeps into the Great Lakes Region, upper level ridging gets squashed and a reinforcing northern shortwave turns flow northwesterly by Tuesday and through the remainder of the forecast. Surface high streaming in Tuesday keeps highs near normal and conditionsquiet and clear into Wednesday before next, and best, opportunity for showers/thunder moves into the area. Fair degree of spread between synoptic guidance and ensembles when it comes to both strength and timing/evolution of a northern stream shortwave diving out of Canadian Plains, resulting in fairly broad low to moderate (20% to 50%) PoPs from Wednesday through Thursday night. Inevitably, precipitation will not be present that entire time, but highlights the differences among solutions. Prevailing solution and highest period of PoPs (40-50%) results Wednesday night/overnight with moisture return and LLJ. Uncertainty is also highlighted when looking at max temp spreads increasing to 12 to 16 deg F by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 MVFR stratus is expected to slide south from Iowa impacting areas east of highway 65 after 09Z-18Z. Farther west, VFR conditions are expected with few cumulus developing towards 18Z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...BT