271 FXUS63 KEAX 051722 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Thunderstorms Throughout Saturday - Seasonably Warm and Humid Through This Week - More Shower/Storm Potential This Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 H5 ridge axis has shifted eastward into the Great Lakes Region with a short-wave trough moving across the Central Plains early this morning. Low-level jet development overnight coinciding with this short-wave has continued to develop thunderstorms across central Kansas and central Nebraska that has been slowly moving eastward, with an outflow boundary sitting over west-central Kansas. Low-level jet axis shifts eastward along with short-wave trough through the remainder of the morning. GOES imagery already indicating cloud cover ahead of the activity has reached our western counties, and starting to see some returns from both KEAX and KOAX in northwest Missouri, but no reports yet of this activity reaching the surface. HRRR along with other CAMs depict precipitation moving into northeast Kansas around 10z, and then slowly moving eastward toward Central Missouri through 15z this morning. So far storms over Kansas and Nebraska have remained mostly sub-severe through most of the overnight. While we do have some CAPE present, overall lapse rates have not been overly impressive, and most of the shear has been confined to the layer with the LLJ. Cannot completely rule out a stronger wind gust with a few of the storms through this morning, but severe threat likely remains very limited with this activity. By 15z, this first round moves eastward. Heading into the afternoon, mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern CONUS and will eventually work toward a stagnant 594dam high. However, several downstream perturbations across the Central Plains will continue to provide lift, and low-level tropospheric flow remains south to southwesterly. This will maintain a healthy theta-e airmass across region this afternoon, and continued mid-level kinematic lift may lead to additional scattered thunderstorm activity, especially for northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. A wild-card factor will be if there is any lingering outflow boundary from morning convection, that then differential heating could strengthen surface convergence. The large scale synoptic pattern will not be overly conducive deep layer shear limiting organization, but MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg this afternoon with mid-level lift should be enough to develop some stronger activity. HRRR and RAP soundings do indicate low static stability within the boundary layer across much of the area with shallow inverted-v structure. Certainly appears conducive to precipitation loading, and if able to tap into dry air above 700mb, could see evaporational cooling promote severe wind gusts with downbursts in stronger storms. That will be the main threat associated with storms in the afternoon and through the evening. Freezing level is fairly high, and with the lack of deep layer shear, would be difficult for hail stone to see substantial growth. The remainder of the week will be characterized by several short- waves that move over the ridge in the southwestern CONUS and eject across the Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. Ensemble suites hold anywhere between 15 and 30 percent probabilities for measurable precipitation each day through next week, and the NBM has maintained this trend. Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and will vary based on cloud cover and shower/storm coverage through the week. There is some signal for a stronger H5 vort maxima on Tuesday that could result in some stronger storm activity, but overall deep layer shear is not overly impressive in most of the deterministic guidance available through next week. QPF trends may need to be monitored, as some environments may feature deep warm-cloud processes and efficient rainfall production. Should multiple rounds of slow moving storms occur, low- end hydro issues may pop up across the forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR conds are expected thru most of the TAF pd. The main concern for aviators will be the chc for lgt tsra at the TAF sites btn 01Z-05Z out ahead of a slow movg cold front. Models are hinting at the poss of MVFR cigs late in pd behind the front aft 12Z-14Z. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts thru 08Z when winds will veer to the WSW and diminish to 5-10kts. The cold frontal passage is expected btn 10Z-14Z veering winds to the W/NW while remaining btn 5-10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...73