049
FXUS63 KPAH 111141
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding continues to impact most of the area. Most
  river points will see crests in moderate to major categories.

- Clear skies and calm winds tonight will lead to the formation
  of patches/areas of frost across portions of southern
  Illinois, western Kentucky, and southwest Indiana.

- A warming trend is expected this weekend, followed by the next
  chance for showers/storms with the passage of a cold front on
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Mainly dry conditions have returned to the region early this
Friday morning. However, a few sprinkles or even an isolated
shower cannot be ruled out through midday as a secondary cold
front passes through. By afternoon, lingering sky cover should
decrease as deeper moisture shifts south of the region. Highs
today will be much cooler than yesterday, with readings ranging
from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tonight, the core of surface high pressure will settle into the
region. The resultant clear skies and calm winds will allow
temperatures to drop into the 30s. Temperatures across much of
southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky could
be cold enough for the formation of patches/areas of frost
overnight. This may eventually necessitate the need for a Frost
Advisory in those areas.

A warming trend will begin on Saturday as an upper level ridge
builds east from the Plains and southerly flow ensues on the
back side of departing high pressure. By Sunday, the pressure
gradient will have tightened enough to result in strong southerly
winds, with sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20 to 30
mph. Highs by Sunday should manage to top the 70 degree mark
over the entire area.

The approach and passage of our next cold front on Monday will
yield the next chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
The NBM may be somewhat underdone with rain chances, but lack of
moisture return may ultimately be a limiting factor. Conditions
dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday before the next weather system
brings rain chances back for Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The passage of a secondary cold front will bring a period of
MVFR sky cover and the potential for a few showers or sprinkles
this morning through midday. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
expected as skies gradually clear throughout the afternoon into
the early evening. North winds around 10 knots with gusts of 15
to 20 knots today will become calm tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...RJP
AVIATION...RJP