049 FXUS63 KEAX 140522 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible late Wednesday into early Thursday - Low chances (less than 25%) for precip late tonight into Monday - Unsettled pattern with multiple chances for rain for the second half of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Breezy conditions continue through the evening as the pressure gradient remains strengthened due a surface low currently (as of 20Z) over the MO/IA border. Our winds gradually shift to the north as the surface low tracks to the northeast dragging the associated surface front through the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the passage of this front, there is a slim (less than 25%) chance for light rain across the area. Showers are expected to be post-frontal suggesting they will be elevated. Drier air near the surface may lead to most of the rain evaporating resulting in increased cloud coverage and a few sprinkles across the area overnight tonight. Much cooler, more seasonal high temperatures expected for Monday with the passage of the cold front. Highs are expected to range in the low to mid 60s. Early Tuesday morning, a surface high slides down the Great Plains into the southern US keeping conditions for Tuesday quiet. Temperature-wise Tuesday`s highs look almost identical to Monday Early Wednesday, the next system approaches from the west shifting our winds to the south. This will allow us to warm up kicking off a quick warming trend for Wednesday and Thursday. Isentropic ascent at 300K surface may lead to some showers Wednesday morning. As the surface low continues its approach late Wednesday into Thursday, the associated warm front moves through the area from the south to the north. With an H850 LLJ funneling warm, moist air into the warm sector isentropic ascent at the 300K surface will result in chances for showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning. Severe chances seem fairly limited at this time with a stout cap in place. MUCAPE values range around 2,000-2,500 J/kg and bulk shear values range from 40-60 kts which would be a favorable environment for severe thunderstorm development if this environment is realized. There may be a chance for a strong storm or two if this available energy is realized. SPC has placed a slight (15%) chance for severe on Day 5 mainly including areas north of I-70. Friday, a weak surface low emerges from the Plains and tracks to the northeast of the area through the day. The associated frontal boundary approaching from west-northwest could act as a catalyst for showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures look to be near seasonal averages for next weekend. The pattern remains fairly active with a mid to upper level trough in the southwest ejecting shortwaves through the flow. Multiple chances for rain expected on Monday making for a wet start to the work-week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Northwesterly winds overnight will increase tomorrow morning, gusting to near 25kts through the afternoon. Winds then diminish again with loss of daytime heating tomorrow evening, remaining from the northwest. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Curtis