342 FXUS63 KEAX 102329 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...Updated 00z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms possible to likely later this evening into the overnight and early morning hours of Monday. - Locally moderate to heavy rainfall remains possible. - Another round of showers and storms possible Monday afternoon and evening. Locally moderate rainfall and perhaps a stronger storm or two will be possible. - Drier conditions and warming temperatures are likely by mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 H5 analysis shows longwave mid/upper troughing across much of the north central CONUS extending southward into the Plains and Midwest with a perturbation/vort max traveling through northern MO and Iowa this afternoon and another embedded shortwave trough traversing the southwest periphery of the trough across the Intermountain West and into Colorado. At the surface, the cold front currently resides essentially along Interstate 35 in Missouri before curling back to the west through eastern Kansas. Convection that moved through much of the region this morning and early afternoon has likely stabilized us enough to preclude the development of convection this afternoon and early evening, and has also required lowering today`s MaxT temperatures for most locations. A reservoir of 3500 J/kg of ML CAPE still exists along the Oklahoma/Kansas border north of Tulsa, with the CAPE gradient in place in the vicinity of Linn County KS and Bates County, MO. And with the low level jet expected to ramp up later this evening and the stalled front and other remnant outflow boundaries still present, the 18z HRRR solution of convection developing later this evening across SE Kansas, building eastward into western Missouri (south of Kansas City) seems reasonable (although the recent performance of the CAMs, including the HRRR, has been poor at best). The aforementioned shortwave trough descending out of the Intermountain West into Colorado should help generate convection across eastern Colorado this afternoon, which should then grow upscale into a full blown severe MCS across the OK Panhandle into SW Kansas by late tonight, with this MCS potentially staying together (albeit weakening) as it makes it long trek across Kansas. This (even further weakened) MCS may even make it as far east as the KC metro by tomorrow morning, with the HRRR suggesting the potential for it to become an MCV. With PWATs on the order of 1.6 to 1.8 inches, locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with both the convection late this evening into tonight and the potential morning MCS. As such, have elected to hold onto the flood watch through 7 AM for the I-70 corridor and points south, even through the threat for high impact and widespread flooding has definitely subsided quite a bit. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves from Colorado toward Missouri with the stalled out front still lingering across the CWA. While we are not currently outlooked under even a marginal risk for severe storms from SPC, model soundings show up to 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE with around 25 knots of 0 to 6 km bulk shear with modestly steep lapse rates. Thus, I would not be shocked if we end up being upgraded to a marginal risk for severe weather for tomorrow afternoon. PWATs will remain high, so localized moderate rainfall will be possible. Rain chances should linger Tuesday as the front remains stalled across the CWA, but it should eventually undergo frontolysis and eventually completely dissolve. Mid level ridging should gradually build in, leading to warmer and drier conditions, by mid to late week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Starting to see shower/storm activity develop south of the Kansas City metro. Through the evening here, most of it should stay southward though a few storms could reach IXD. Expecting showers to eventually move northward overnight, however the coverage that the high resolution CAMs are indicating could be too far north. Have placed showers in the TAFs overnight and kept thunder mentions in a PROB30 given there may not be enough instability for thunder development. After these move through, a few hours of MVFR conditions are possible Monday morning. Additional development is possible Monday afternoon into evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ028-029-037>040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Krull