049
FXUS63 KEAX 140522
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible late Wednesday into early Thursday

- Low chances (less than 25%) for precip late tonight into
  Monday

- Unsettled pattern with multiple chances for rain for the
  second half of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Breezy conditions continue through the evening as the pressure
gradient remains strengthened due a surface low currently (as of
20Z) over the MO/IA border. Our winds gradually shift to the north
as the surface low tracks to the northeast dragging the associated
surface front through the area late tonight into early tomorrow
morning. With the passage of this front, there is a slim (less than
25%) chance for light rain across the area. Showers are expected to
be post-frontal suggesting they will be elevated. Drier air near the
surface may lead to most of the rain evaporating resulting in
increased cloud coverage and a few sprinkles across the area
overnight tonight. Much cooler, more seasonal high temperatures
expected for Monday with the passage of the cold front. Highs are
expected to range in the low to mid 60s. Early Tuesday morning, a
surface high slides down the Great Plains into the southern US
keeping conditions for Tuesday quiet. Temperature-wise
Tuesday`s highs look almost identical to Monday

Early Wednesday, the next system approaches from the west shifting
our winds to the south. This will allow us to warm up kicking off a
quick warming trend for Wednesday and Thursday. Isentropic ascent at
300K surface may lead to some showers Wednesday morning. As the
surface low continues its approach late Wednesday into Thursday, the
associated warm front moves through the area from the south to the
north. With an H850 LLJ funneling warm, moist air into the warm
sector isentropic ascent at the 300K surface will result in chances
for showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning. Severe chances
seem fairly limited at this time with a stout cap in place. MUCAPE
values range around 2,000-2,500 J/kg and bulk shear values range
from 40-60 kts which would be a favorable environment for severe
thunderstorm development if this environment is realized. There may
be a chance for a strong storm or two if this available energy is
realized. SPC has placed a slight (15%) chance for severe on Day 5
mainly including areas north of I-70.

Friday, a weak surface low emerges from the Plains and tracks to the
northeast of the area through the day. The associated frontal
boundary approaching from west-northwest could act as a catalyst for
showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday.
Temperatures look to be near seasonal averages for next weekend. The
pattern remains fairly active with a mid to upper level trough in
the southwest ejecting shortwaves through the flow. Multiple chances
for rain expected on Monday making for a wet start to the work-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Northwesterly
winds overnight will increase tomorrow morning, gusting to near
25kts through the afternoon. Winds then diminish again with loss of
daytime heating tomorrow evening, remaining from the northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis