686
FXUS64 KMEG 231704
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1104 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A rainy week ahead as multiple frontal systems move through the
Midsouth. The first round of rain begins Tuesday lasting into
Christmas day. Thursday looks to be dry before rain chances
increase again Friday through next weekend. High temperatures
will hover in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s all
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A weakly amplified, zonal upper pattern currently exists over the
CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure is sliding east
from the Tennessee River Valley into the Southeast this morning.
Behind it, weak southerlies have begun to slowly allow low level
moisture and clouds to advect over the western portions of our
region with clear skies to the east. This dichotomy has led to
temperatures both over performing (west) and underperforming
(east) most guidance at the same time, creating a challenging
temperature forecast through sunrise. Regardless, today should be
dry with temperatures climbing into the 50s.

The upper pattern will quickly amplify today and tomorrow as a
shortwave develops over the central Plains. There is good
confidence that a weak area of low pressure will develop over the
Red River and travel east. Rain showers will form by Tuesday and
Wednesday along a quasi-stationary boundary over north Mississippi
before the upper low passes to our east Wednesday night. Weak forcing
and shallow moisture will limit rainfall totals to below .5"
through Christmas day. The region will dry out Thursday as the low
passes east with highs in the 50s and 60s through the end of the
week.

Amplification of a ridge over the east coast will force what has
been a progressive pattern to begin to slow by mid week. Flow
over the western CONUS, still being zonal and very progressive,
will eject multiple shortwaves into the Midsouth within this
changing regime. Deeper moisture will exist across the region
during this time frame that will produce rainfall with each
shortwave. Although there is high confidence in strong flow and
upper forcing, confidence in the evolution of rainfall- producing
surface features is still low. The NBM/GFS currently favor a
stationary setup with multiple waves of precipitation producing up
to 3" of rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF depicts a more progressive
surface evolution amounting to lower QPF only up to 1.5"- 2"
through this weekend. Regardless, rain will fall next weekend but
there is still variability regarding the magnitude of any rainfall
totals.

By the end of the forecast, spread only increases amongst
guidance, yielding very low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions continue to prevail. Winds will be southerly
through the entire period, generally between 5 to 9 kts. The HRRR
showed very light returns near MEM and JBR overnight, but dewpts
not seem supportive of rain reaching the ground. Best SHRA chances
will be near and after 00z Wednesday.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...DNM