240 FXUS64 KMEG 092315 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 615 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Isolated strong, but sub-severe storms remain possible in north Mississippi this evening. - Dry and seasonable temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by the end of the work week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 A frontal boundary has slowly sagged through the area so far today, with ongoing thunderstorms generally south of I-40. This activity will continue to drift eastward through the afternoon. While we have had plentiful amounts of SBCAPE, shear has remained limited as expected. Lapse rates have largely been a limiting factor so far today as well and I am not too confident that this will improve through the remainder of the afternoon. If lapse rates improve a bit or we can get some upscale growth with a few of these storms, won`t rule out some strong to borderline severe thunderstorms through about 6 PM. Wind gusts up to 60 mph with hail up to the size of quarters would be the main concerns. The window for anything strong to severe should decrease after 6 PM, but a couple of lingering thunderstorms could persist over north MS until around midnight. Frontal boundary will likely stalled just to the south of our area, with clearing skies behind and calm winds. I would not be surprised if we get at least some patchy to locally dense fog mainly across north MS and up through the TN River area. Any fog that develops overnight will quickly mix out following sunrise. Into tomorrow, a dry weather pattern will move into the region with temperatures warming each day. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday, likely warming into the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, a cutoff low will linger across the plains, slowly drifting eastward into the weekend. Think most of the area will likely make it through much of Thursday without any PoPs, but could begin to see thunderstorms move back into the area by the evening to overnight hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase further on Friday and linger into the weekend as this low moves closer to the area. Given the lack of any real upper-level forcing, would not be surprised if shower and thunderstorm chances become somewhat diurnally driven, with higher PoPs in the afternoons and evenings and lower PoPs overnight and through the mornings. As such, large scale severe weather looks unlikely but won`t rule out a few strong, pulse thunderstorms with strong winds and hail by the weekend. As far as our temperatures go, warm air will remain through the weekend with high temperatures likely remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF cycle. The exception may be near TUP where MVFR FG/BR is possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Northwest winds 3-7 kts. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...JDS