081
FXUS64 KJAN 180551 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1151 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A few strong storms can`t be ruled out ahead of a cold front
    late Thursday afternoon into night.

  - A brief cool down is expected Friday through Friday night
    before a more substantial warm-up takes place next week.

  - Christmas Day looks warm and dry.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

This evening will start of relatively quiet across our CWA with rain
chances beginning to increase across southeast portions of our area.
Heading into the overnight period, rain chances will start to
increase mainly for areas along and east of I-55. Areas of shallow
patchy fog will be possible mainly for areas west of the MS River,
including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast LA
parishes. At the moment, HREF guidance is beginning to show low
probabilities (20-30%) of patchy fog development west of the MS
River. Given the low probabilities, a Dense Fog Advisory will not
issued for tonight. Will reassess during the midnight shift to see
is a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Overnight lows will dip into
the upper 40s to low 50s areawide. Updates are out. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Tonight we`ll see a greater increase in low level moisture
transport over the entire area, and this warm advection regime
will continue into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
While moisture will be sufficient for showers and storms to
develop ahead of the cold front, a complicating factor will be
convective rainfall associated with a shortwave trough crossing
the northern gulf. Guidance is still showing strong agreement for
a convective system to develop over the northern Gulf and move
onshore in the central Gulf Coast region early Thursday, and this
could disrupt the thermodynamic environment in our area by
intercepting better low level moisture transport. ML/AI guidance
are maintaining better severe weather probs north of our forecast
area, and so will continue to hold off on any formal messaging,
especially given weak instability/lift.

Following the front, cooler temperatures will follow late
Thursday night and persist through Friday/Friday night, but this
will be a relatively quick shot of cool air with the colder
anomalies passing well to our north in the progressive weather
pattern. Thereafter a more substantial warm-up appears definite
now given strong agreement among global model ensembles. In the
upper levels it is about as warm of pattern as you will ever see
in the south central CONUS as we lead up to Christmas Day, but
subtle surface features, cloud cover, etc. beneath the ridge will
dictate just how warm it will get, and whether we break any
record highs. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR/MVFR flight condition as low stratus clouds currently move over
the area. Stratus deck will remain throughout the day. SHRA/-RA is
expected after 10Z Thursday, reducing flight conditions to IFR and
possible LIFR. Southerly winds around 10 kts with higher gusts
expected over the period. VFR flight conditions returns after 23Z-
00Z Friday as SHRA/-RA comes to an end. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  53  72  38 /  10  30  70  20
Meridian      64  50  67  38 /  10  40  90  40
Vicksburg     66  53  71  38 /  20  10  60  10
Hattiesburg   70  54  74  42 /  10  50  70  30
Natchez       67  55  74  40 /  20  10  50  10
Greenville    58  50  65  35 /  10  10  80  10
Greenwood     63  51  67  34 /  10  20  80  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/SW