057
FXUS64 KJAN 220543 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1243 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We will be monitoring a stormy weather pattern for additional
  flash flood and severe weather threats this week.

- Dangerous heat stress will return for much of the area Monday
  and continue through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight through Saturday...A fairly active pattern will persist
across the forecast area through much of this forecast period.  A
quasi-zonal to northwest flow pattern aloft will continue across the
region through the work week.  This, as south to southwest flow at
the surface persists.  This setup will continue to promote a rather
humid and unstable airmass across the region, as disturbances aloft
moving across and/or near the region keep good rain chances in the
forecast through late week.

IN the meantime for the rest of the afternoon into this evening, a
line of convection will continue to lift northeast across northern
portions of the CWA.  In its wake, some isolated showers and storms
will remain possible into this evening, but this line of convection
has taken some punch out of our atmosphere for the rest of today.
Some of these storms along this line could be strong and capable of
producing gusty winds, along with between 0.5-0.75 inches in a short
amount of time, possibly resulting in some localized ponding of
water in low-lying and poor drainage areas.  Quiet weather overall
is expected tonight, but some showers and storms beginning to impede
upon far northern portions of the CWA can`t be ruled out Monday
morning.

On Monday, an outflow boundary is currently progged to bring a
complex of storms into the forecast area during the course of the
day. This complex will bring the potential for isolated severe
storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts to much of the CWA
during this time.  In addition, very frequent lightning can be
expected, along with the potential for flash flooding as a result of
both antecedent conditions and the potential for training of
convection producing very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time.
Both of these hazards will continue to be highlighted in the HWO for
Monday, along with the potential for dangerous heat stress across
mainly western and southern portions of the forecast area Monday
afternoon.

Throughout the remainder of the work week, and as eluded to above,
disturbances aloft will continue to result in the potential for
storms across the forecast area each day.  While confidence in any
potential for at least isolated severe storms is currently too low
to mention in the HWO past Monday, some storms could be strong
enough to at least produce some gusty winds.  The 12Z KJAN RAOB, and
those immediately surrounding our CWA, will need to be analyzed
daily to determine the area`s microburst potential.  Also, with the
copious amount of moisture remaining over the area and the saturated
soil conditions, some potential for localized flash flooding will
exist each day with convection.

Come the weekend, the increasing presence of ridging aloft and high
pressure at the surface across the region looks to lessen rain
chances. However, high humidity levels, aided by continued saturated
soil conditions from recent heavy rains, and highs warming in the
low to middle 90s Saturday, could bring about the concern for
dangerous heat stress conditions as afternoon heat index values
could climb above 100F.  This is several days out, and will continue
to be monitored in the latest forecasts. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR flight conditions under mostly clear skies across sites except
near GTR (currently at LIFR) as low stratus builds in the north. Low
stratus will gradually spread across the area, resulting in MVFR
flight conditions around 11Z. Showers/storms will be possible after
18Z near northern and central site, bringing reduced flight
conditions. Flight conditions will improve to VFR after 20Z with
southwest winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. /SW/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  75  90  73 /  20  30  50  40
Meridian      92  74  90  72 /  30  30  70  40
Vicksburg     91  76  90  74 /  30  20  30  40
Hattiesburg   93  76  93  74 /  10   0  20  20
Natchez       92  76  92  75 /   0  10  20  30
Greenville    90  74  87  72 /  80  70  70  50
Greenwood     90  74  87  72 /  80  70  80  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/SW