361 FXUS64 KJAN 090833 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Today... Early morning radar scans show a line of scattered t-storms slowly tracking east across the I-20 corridor. Some of these storms could reach severe potential later this morning. Early morning CAM guidance continue to show a well-organized MCS across the ArkLaTex region propagating eastward towards our CWA. By the time this convective complex reaches our forecast area, likely beginning in the predawn hours this morning, the severe weather potential will have diminished somewhat. However, the remains of this energy will still allow for a few cells or bowing segments to produce damaging winds and hail up to quarter size as the convective complex interacts with an airmass that will be moderately unstable (~2000- 3000 SBCAPE) heading into the afternoon today. The timing for the severe graphic today has been updated with 4AM-1PM being the primary window for the most intense storms. Storms could redevelop across portions of south and southeast MS later this afternoon through this evening as model guidance shows the early morning storms clearing out for a diurnal upward afternoon temperature swing prior to dusk. Any storms that do manage to redevelop will be isolated. Storm chances will decrease during the evening with a few lingering showers possible heading into the overnight period. In addition to the severe potential this morning, some of these storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. The SPC Ensemble Viewer from this morning is starting to show a strong QPF signal across southern portions of our CWA. Because of this, a "Limited" threat for localized flash flooding has been introduced mainly for parts of central and southern MS. Rainfall amounts between 0.5-2" will be possible across our area with locally higher amounts possible further south. /CR/OAJ/86/ The forecast for the extended period remains on track with no significant changes made to the overall forecast. Please see the previous forecast discussion down below for more information: Tuesday through the weekend... Global guidance continues to show a cold front shifting southward and stalling across the southeastern CONUS heading into Tuesday. This front will provide some relief from the triple digit heat index readings over much of our forecast area. This front will also keep higher chances of showers and t-storms around for the rest of the period/area for the afternoon hours and subsequently peter off after sunset. /CR/OAJ/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR conditions prevail across most of the area early this morning outside of festering SHRA and TS in the HBG area. Later this morning, convection is expected to spread eastward into the area closer to daybreak, with potential for wind gusts to 50 kt. Ahead of these storms, MVFR stratus is expected to develop over a good chunk of the region. Clouds may linger behind the storms, but ceilings are expected to generally rise with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon in most areas. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 69 87 67 / 90 40 50 10 Meridian 85 67 87 65 / 90 60 50 20 Vicksburg 85 69 87 67 / 90 30 40 10 Hattiesburg 90 71 89 70 / 90 60 80 30 Natchez 87 70 85 68 / 80 50 60 20 Greenville 83 67 85 66 / 80 10 10 0 Greenwood 82 66 87 65 / 80 20 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/OAJ/86/DL