165 FXUS64 KMEG 112023 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow. A few storms could be strong to severe late afternoon through late evening along and west of the Mississippi River. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through this weekend. At this time, the chances for severe thunderstorms remains low. - Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A warm and rather comfortable day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s with relative humidity comfortably in 30 to 45 percent range. Residual Canadian wildfire smoke continues to lift north across the region, as seen from GOES east satellite. Aloft, shortwave upper level ridging is present over the region, downstream of an upper low pressure system over central Texas. The aforementioned upper low will slowly lift northeast through Saturday. A shortwave will eject into the Lower Mississippi Valley late tomorrow afternoon and spawn showers and thunderstorms across the region. Simultaneously, a warm front will lift north across the region and increase PWATs to near 2 inches, or the 99th percentile for this time of year. The combination of rich moisture and 20 to 25 knots of bulk shear will support the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms by late tomorrow afternoon. Hi- res models continue to pick up on an MCS overnight near the ArkLaMiss. The evolution of this system could enhance severe thunderstorm development late tomorrow afternoon, particularly in the form of an MCV. This would increase low level spin (helicity) and support the current 2% tornado risk in place. The current parameter space supports a Marginal Risk (1/5), but could increase to a Slight Risk (2/5) as hi-res models continue to resolve the genesis of an MCV. General timing is from late afternoon through about midnight tomorrow night. The upper level low will continue to eject small perturbations Friday through Saturday, with bouts of scattered to numerous storms each day. It`s hard to say how strong storms will be each day in this pattern, but if sufficient destabilization is able to occur between each little wave, the threat of a couple of strong to severe storms remains plausible. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s. The upper level pattern will become more diffuse late in the weekend through early next week as the upper low lifts out of the region. Weak mid level flow will keep a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the middle of next week. The main story will be increasing temperatures and heat indices approaching the 100 degree mark by midweek. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 VFR. Light southeast winds will shift more south/southwest by the end of the period, ahead of an upper-low. Pop-up thunderstorms may impact MEM tomorrow afternoon with the movement of the aforementioned low. A PROB30 has been added for such. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Humidity will markedly increase tomorrow as a warm front lifts north across the entire area. Dewpoints will climb into the 70s and yield relative humidity values in the 50 to 70 percent range. Widespread wetting rainfall will occur late tomorrow afternoon through late evening as a band of strong to severe thunderstorms moves across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue each day through next week. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH