687 FXUS64 KMEG 081144 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - The next round of thunderstorms will arrive late tonight. Damaging winds are the primary concern through sunrise. - Additional severe storms are anticipated Monday afternoon near the Tennessee River. A Slight Risk for severe storms is in place with damaging winds and large hail the primary concerns. - Dry and seasonable temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday. The end of the work week will feature additional chances for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 An interesting weather pattern will impact the Mid-South today, characterized by two frontal passages and severe weather chances. A weak cold front continues to move southeast as of 3AM. Recent surface observations already depict northwesterly winds in areas of eastern Arkansas. Unfortunately, this front will bring little relief from the heat and humidity as it dies out over northern Mississippi later this morning. Today`s dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Elsewhere in CONUS, a large cut-off low will sink into the Great Lakes Region by midday and eject a cold front towards the Mid- South. This feature will become the main focus for additional severe storms late tonight into Monday morning. An ongoing MCS will approach the Mid-South between the 2AM to 5AM hour tonight. However, evolution of this complex as it crosses into the Mid- South remains hard to pinpoint. The latest CAMs remain in large disagreement on timing and precise location of these storms. Furthermore, the 06Z HRRR keeps severe weather out of the Mid- South completely. Regardless of which scenario pans out, it is important to note that appreciable CIN will be in place by the time storms reach our area. This will hamper upscale storm growth, and likely lead to a weakening trend as storms move east of the Mississippi River. Initial storms moving into eastern Arkansas may pose a damaging wind threat. A secondary round of severe weather is anticipated Monday as diurnal trends improve the convective environment over the Mid- South. By midday, SBCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg as bulk shear remains around 25 kts. While shear is lacking, the abundance of CAPE will allow for a conditional threat of damaging winds within storms. The greatest corridor for additional severe storm development on Monday exists in an area stretching from the Tennessee River southwest into northeast Mississippi. This is represented well in the Storm Prediction Center`s Slight Risk (2/5) for Monday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. Both the GFS and ECMWF now favor a more progressive front that pushes well into Mississippi. As such, this will place the Mid- South in a fair and pleasant weather pattern characterized by normal temperatures. Unfortunately, this more dry and seasonable pattern will not last as a cut-off low approaches the region on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances return to end the work week. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Probabilistic guidance indicates around a 50 percent chance for MVFR ceilings to develop for a few hours at MKL this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail through most of the period. Latest short-term models and CAMs are trending toward a later onset of showers and thunderstorms perhaps after sunrise Monday. Have kept the PROB30 for thunderstorms before sunrise at MEM for now but may need to consider a delayed onset if newer data confirms this trend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CJC