162 FXUS64 KJAN 022317 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 617 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Tonight through next weekend... Early to mid week (Tonight through Tuesday): Region will be shunted in between mid-level ridging off to the west & surface high off to the east. This will gradually lead to warm advection & subtle moistening aloft. Lows will be seasonable tonight (63-70F) & highs moderating into the low 90s (88-92F). Ridging at the sfc & aloft will keep the region dry on Tuesday. Some continued Canadian wildfire smoke concentration aloft is possible through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday: As a mean longwave trough takes shape along & west of the MS River corridor, this will coincide with an upper low meandering to the northwest over the north-central Gulf. This will lead to increased convergence & southerly return flow & moistening of the atmospheric column (PWs less than one inch rising to nearly an inch & a half to slightly higher). Upper low will gradually phase & eject northeast into late week off the eastern seaboard. Scattered rain showers & isolated to scattered storms will be expected mid to late week, with the highest coverage in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors (15-55% each day & up to 55-70% on Wednesday with increased convergence). Highs will gradually moderate to seasonably warm, some 2-5F above Wednesday (88-91F) & 3-6F above into late week on Thursday to Friday (89-94F with warmest day into Friday). As the synoptic pattern gradually becomes conducive for northwesterly flow, there will be a gradual shift in coverage area into the Golden Triangle for scattered to numerous rain showers & isolated to scattered storm coverage (25-70%, with 55-75% in the northeast into the weekend). There is some support in CSU machine learning probs & perturbed northwesterly flow into the weekend (25- 40kts Saturday & especially Sunday), combined with favorable lapse rates/thermo profiles, for organized strong to severe potential. Confidence is too low to introduce at this point but may be needed in the coming days if trends persist. This pattern could persist into the following week. With dewpoints climbing Wednesday through Friday into the 71-75F range & 73-78F into the weekend, an increase in dangerous heat & humidity will be a concern. This is too far out to highlight in HWO graphics for now. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period with generally light wind. Brief patchy fog is possible around daybreak Tuesday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include at any specific site. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 40 Meridian 64 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 40 Vicksburg 69 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 20 Hattiesburg 66 92 71 90 / 0 10 10 70 Natchez 68 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 30 Greenville 68 89 70 89 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 68 90 71 90 / 0 0 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/DL