713 FXUS64 KLIX 100530 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Typical northwest flow regime with convection taking longer to get going this afternoon but it is finally beginning to pop across southeastern MS and back building across the river into LA. This is along an old outflow boundary from convection earlier. Otherwise it has been another warm and humid day. Luckily it wasn`t as oppressive as it was yesterday. I few sites have seen the heat index jump into the lower 100s but most are remaining in the 90s. First lets look at the next 6 hours before we looks at tomorrow and Wednesday. Remnant outflow boundary that was mentioned in the previous paragraph is lightning up now. This area is collocated with the highest instability in the area, decent LL convergence and fairly impressive upper lvl diffluence. Mesoanalysis and WV shows a weak mid lvl impulse just beginning to move into our area. As this continue to slowly work east we will see convection continue to develop mainly over areas east of I-55 and especially along north of I-10. That activity will drift southeast through the evening and should begin to dissipate pretty significantly just before midnight. Prior to that though there is the threat of a few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. PWs are ata 1.9" for much of the CWA and even approaching 2.1" just west of the area we are most concerned with convection. That will move into the eastern half of the CWA over the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. That combined with the favorable diffluence aloft and likely strong convection should lead to a few rather efficient storms and if these storms move over more urban areas could quickly lead to runoff and some isolated areas of flash flooding. Again convection should quickly begin to dissipate an hour or two before midnight but likely not completely die off overnight as there will still be isolated storms overnight, especially over the coastal waters. So the next 36-48 hrs, could be active each day but not going to lie confidence is not the greatest in how widespread convection will be however, we should see at least scattered convection across the region Tuesday but Wednesday may be a little less in coverage. Tomorrow we will still be under a weak northwest flow regime but the eastern CONUS L/W trough will not linger around for long and by tomorrow afternoon and early evening will slide east. Heading into Wednesday a weak disturbance currently over southern CA will slide towards the southern Plains with s/w ridging taking place over the Lower MS Valley Wednesday. Now that s/w ridging could significantly impact thunderstorm potential but if the ridge axis is just to the east of the area it may act a little more like a dirty ridge given all of the moisture available with convection being highly driven by diurnal shifts i.e. sea/lake breezes and peak heating. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Again medium range models in fairly good agreement. In addition the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are also in rather good agreement with their perspective op runs. This generally leads to higher confidence in the medium range forecast and nothing suggest it shouldn`t this time. However again the NBM is very high with the PoPs showing 70-90% Thursday and through the weekend and lets be completely clear we are not going to see that coverage everyday. Would like to drop PoPs some but not confident enough to drop any specific area but 5-7 days of 70-90% PoP is not that realistic. MOS products are not anywhere that hot but they do trend towards climo on days 6 and 7. With that DO NOT be surprised to see PoPs drop down drastically in some spots as we move through the week. As for the pattern things will transition very very slowly. We will generally be between 2 ridges Thursday through the weekend. One ridge will begin to build over the Bahamas and then slide west into the southeastern CONUS and far eastern Gulf. At the same time a large ridge will begin to take shape over the Mexico/AZ/NM border. That ridge will build north through the southern Rockies and into the western Plains. What this does is places us in the area of weakness between the two ridges. This does provide us a more favorable setup for daily convection and with weak synoptic flow the sfc winds will be driven diurnally and convection will as well, typically along the seabreeze each day or even nocturnal marine convection sliding during the day. Once convection initiates it will be driven by outflow and other boundary interactions. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Terminals VFR at forecast issuance, but there is a band of TSRA just northwest of KGPT that will impact that terminal and potentially KASD over the next couple of hours. Likely to briefly produce MVFR ceilings and IFR or lower visibilities. Closer to sunrise, expect MVFR ceilings at several terminals, and temporarily IFR at KMCB. During the daylight hours, it`s not a question of whether there will be thunderstorms, but more of a question of timing and which terminals will be impacted. For now will carry PROB30 at all terminals at some point during the late morning through afternoon. Threat is non-zero beyond 00z Wednesday, but that will be more dependent on where the convection during the day sets up. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Winds are right at the SCS threshold but just marginally. With that will hold off on headlines for now but that may need to be added to some of the waters, mainly that area east of the MS delta as that typical nocturnal jet develops. Otherwise high pressure will begin to take over and winds will slowly back around to the south and southeast through the week and into the weekend. The main concerns for marine operators will be the daily/nightly threat for thunderstorms to produce locally higher winds and/or seas. Do not see any prolonged period over the next 5 days where thunderstorms will not be a threat. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 88 71 89 / 30 70 20 60 BTR 73 90 74 91 / 30 80 20 70 ASD 71 90 73 90 / 40 80 20 60 MSY 77 90 78 91 / 40 90 20 80 GPT 73 88 75 89 / 60 80 40 70 PQL 72 89 73 89 / 60 80 30 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...RW MARINE...CAB