081
FXUS64 KJAN 170318
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
918 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A warming trend will continue through Thursday.

  - A few strong storms can`t be ruled out ahead of a cold front
    late Thursday afternoon into night.

  - A brief cool down is expected Friday through Friday night
    before a more substantial warm-up takes place early next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

This evening will start off with relatively quiet weather conditions
with ongoing cloud cover across our forecast area. Scattered rain
showers will begin increase from the north as southerly low level
moisture flow from the Gulf increases across our CWA. Shower
coverage will begin to increase over areas west of I-55 as we get
closer to daybreak. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 30s to
low 40s areawide. Updates are out. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Tonight through early next week:

Warm advection aloft is hastening the retreat of the cold/dry air
mass in our region today, and surface conditions are responding
with temperatures/dewpoints getting back to more typical values.
Tonight we`ll see a greater increase in low level moisture
transport, and this will lead to scattered shower coverage over
mainly the northwest half of the area as we approach daybreak.
This warm advection regime should continue for much of Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

By Thursday, an approaching cold front will help to focus deeper
moisture, and increasing lift may help to initiate a few
thunderstorms over the forecast area. There is an added complexity
that reduces the forecast confidence concerning thunderstorm
impacts. Guidance is showing strong agreement for a thunderstorm
cluster to develop over the northern Gulf and move onshore in the
central Gulf Coast region early Thursday, and this could disrupt
the thermodynamic environment in our area by intercepting better
low level moisture transport. It is unclear how this scenario will
evolve in the details, and with SPC and ML/AI guidance maintaining
better severe weather probs north of our forecast area, will
continue to hold off on any formal messaging, especially given
weak instability/lift.

Following the front, cooler temperatures will follow late
Thursday night and persist through Friday/Friday night, but this
will be a relatively quick shot of cool air with the colder
anomalies passing well to our north in the progressive weather
pattern. Thereafter a more substantial warm-up appears definite
now given strong agreement among global model ensembles. In the
upper levels it is about as warm of pattern as you will ever see
in the south central CONUS as we lead up to Christmas Day. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

As of 2320Z, all TAF sites are under VFR ceilings to start off the
period. VFR ceilings will prevail across all sites heading into the
overnight period. A few southern sites (mainly PIB and HBG) will see
conditions briefly drop down to MVFR status between 09Z/11Z
Wednesday. VFR conditions will return across south MS after 12Z
Wednesday. Scattered light SHRA will be possible across the north
by 08Z before becoming widespread by Wednesday afternoon; however,
the potential for flight impacts will be low. Scattered SHRA will
continue by Wednesday evening with VFR conditions prevailing. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  65  53  71 /   0  20  30  80
Meridian      37  62  48  67 /   0  20  40  80
Vicksburg     42  64  53  71 /  10  30  10  80
Hattiesburg   41  67  53  73 /   0  20  50  70
Natchez       44  66  54  74 /  10  20  20  60
Greenville    40  57  51  66 /  40  30  20  90
Greenwood     42  61  51  66 /  30  30  20  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/CR