079
FXUS64 KLIX 230925
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
325 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Conditions start to support an advective fog pattern late tonight
and Tue. But not all variables will be supportive so this will not
be so concrete. An almost due east wind will begin later today which
will bring back air that has just dried with lower RH levels. This
is not good for advection fog. But there will be some sfc dew pt
recovery, so radiation fog would be on the table. Cloud cover should
be at a minimum and winds should decouple. This will allow radiation
fog to be the only possibility and where there is ample low level
moisture such as near shallow water areas, there could be enough sfc
moisture to contribute to some patchy fog tonight. At the moment,
this does not look to be dense or widepsread, but a few of the usual
locations could show low vis. Tue night has winds coming around to a
SE direction with some added moisture but mixing is heightened from
an inverted trough moving through the gulf, so more than likely this
will result in a strat deck off the ground. And cloud depths will
get deeper from there, so some light showers could be the result by
late Tue night. A strong s/w dropping into the base of the long wave
H3 trough Tue and Tue night will help develop a sfc low and line of
sh/ts that moves through eastern OK/TX during this time. This will
be our next wx maker although minor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

The sfc low and accompanying front will move quickly toward our area
and interact with the deeper moisture provided by the inverted
trough(easterly wave) over the gulf causing some storms to develop
Wed. But at the same time, frontal forcing will be weakening as the
next stronger front gets started to the west. This will cause the
sh/ts along the first front to begin weakening as they move through.
The areas with the best chances for thunder will be the SE 2/3rds of
the area and severe does not look to be in the cards for this go
round. Some of the storms with this could drop some rain rates high
enough to cause ponding, but nothing that causes moderate or major
impacts. A very progressive pattern sets up once this front reaches
our area. This front loses forcing and stalls near or over the area
as the next quickly developing front starts to move toward us and
stalls by Fri over east TX. Between this front and the weak
troughing from the old front near our area, this should keep us in
cloudy, warm, drizzly/showery conditions Wed into Sunday. Sunday is
when the next cold front is expected to move through and clean the
area of all this mess. This frontal cleaning scenario is not agreed
upon by the consensus but it does fit with the overall progressive
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions through this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Winds will shift to SE by Tue and S to even SW by Wed remaining
around 15kt most of the time. Some showers will move over the
northern gulf Tue with some storms mixed in Tue night through Wed.
Wed night into Thu winds will shift back to east through SE and rise
to around 15kt again with some showers possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  39  67  49 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  68  46  73  54 /   0   0   0  30
ASD  65  44  70  52 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  65  51  69  56 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  63  44  66  52 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  66  41  71  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE