223
FXUS64 KLIX 082338
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Tonight through Tuesday morning, multiple weak MCSs will move
through the area. One will be this evening through the mid evening
hours ~9-10pm. The second MCS round will move through early
Monday morning, around 6a through the daytime hours at the least.
These storms with these systems will have the potential for severe
storms, especially in the northern Florida parishes and Southern
MS areas, given the abundant moisture, decent lapse rates, and
favorable instability. The main threats would be for gusty winds
(40-60+mph), frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
There is still a decent amount of model uncertainty, however, on
how far south these severe storms will progress and whether they
will weaken as they move southward. So, the areas with the
greatest chance of seeing severe storms would be South MS and
adjacent LA parishes, but can`t rule out severe storms occurring
south of I-10/12. The system with the best potential for severe
storms will be the one that occurs during the daytime hours on
Monday. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with PWs
around 2 inches for most locations. So, a quick 1-2 inches will
be possible in a short time with any of the efficient storms,
which will be a larger concern in the more vulnerable urban areas,
like Baton Rouge and the MS coastal areas as well as New Orleans.
As for temperatures, the rain will help to tamp down on some of
the heating concerns. Highs Monday will be in the low 90s with
heat index values in the low 100s. If as we go overnight into the
early morning Monday, if the trends are a little drier for Monday,
then the concerns for heat risk would increase, so it will be
something worth monitoring as we head into Monday. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Tuesday through the end of the week, southeasterly flow resumes
across the area, enhancing warm air and moisture advection across
the region. Weak ridging builds over the area. Looking at the
models, Gulf moisture will increase over the region as well
resulting resumption of an enhanced "summertime" pattern.
Consequently, enhanced rain chances will be possible daily Tuesday
through Friday at least, especially during peak daytime heating
hours (afternoon through early evening). These scattered to
numerous showers and storms will have the potential for gusty
winds (30-50mph), frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
Temperatures will continue to be typical of this time of year with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat index values in the low
100s in the forecast for this week due to the numerous showers
expected daily tamping down on some of the heating. If storms
occur earlier, the heat concerns will be reduced somewhat, staying
in the low 100s degrees heat index for much of the week. If the
storms occur more toward the early evening hours, the heat risk
and concern will be more increased closer to 105 degrees heat
index toward the end of the week. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in the rainfall forecast and the temperature forecast
for the majority of the long term, so this will continue to be
monitored for changes over the next few days. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this should persist through
the evening. Lower cigs arrive overnight, mainly impacting MCB,
before clearing later into Monday. Added in PROB30 groups for MCB
and BTR early morning with convection expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Winds will be southerly to southwesterly and strong (15-20kts)
tonight through Monday morning, mainly for the easternmost marine
areas. A small craft exercise caution is in effect for these
eastern marine zones. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate
(10-15kts). Winds will be moderate (10-15kts) Monday through
Tuesday morning. Tuesday through Saturday, winds will be southerly
to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts). Thunderstorms will be a
hazard of concern to mariners throughout the forecast period,
especially during the workweek Monday through the end of the week.
MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 89 70 86 / 50 80 70 80
BTR 76 92 75 88 / 30 60 60 90
ASD 74 92 72 88 / 30 50 50 90
MSY 78 94 77 90 / 20 40 40 90
GPT 77 91 74 87 / 50 60 70 90
PQL 75 90 72 88 / 60 60 70 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ046>048-057-058-
060-064-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...MSW