239 FXUS64 KMEG 031954 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 - Dry conditions are expected to continue through at least Wednesday morning. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. - An unsettled weather pattern will return by Thursday through the weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible. - Temperatures will cool slightly behind a front this weekend. Highs will drop into the low 80s for portions of the area Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Warmer weather continues today as upper ridging persists with a rex block holding things in place across the southeast CONUS. NBM temperatures today are forecast to reach up into the upper 80s, but smoke and CU will keep much of the area from reaching their first 90 degree day. Strong diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will allow wind gusts to mix down. Winds at the top of the boundary layer are in the 15-20 knot range which should be the upper limit of any gusts this afternoon. The rex block to our east will slowly fade as the upper low within it fills in Wednesday. This will allow for subtle height falls across the region as a new upper wind max moves in from the west. Dew points are expected to remain high in the upper 60s and 70s. Shower and thunderstorm development is uncertain since upper and surface forcing will still be to our west. Regardless, a few showers are possible but a more appreciable severe and heavy rain threat is unlikely. By Thursday, the rex block is all but gone with a predominantly zonal pattern over the central CONUS. Upper winds will remain weak as the speed max continues to inch closer to the Midsouth. However, subtle height falls and diurnal heating will finally allow for enough thermodynamic support to promote shower and thunderstorm development. The SPC has a portion of northeast Arkansas in a Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe thunderstorms, primarily for wind and hail. The rest of the region is forecast to have sub-severe showers and storms through the evening, likely ending after sunset. The severe threat begins to ramp up Friday into this weekend. The speed max to our west noses into the Midsouth Friday afternoon with the potential for a morning QLCS. Even with the presence of airmass modification, MLCAPE is forecast to reach into the 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon range with effective shear breaching 30 knots. Mid-level lapse rates are onlysomewhat meager (6.5-7 C/km), but large CAPE will still allow for strong updrafts. The tornado threat is limited with predominantly straight hodographs. The SPC has outlined the vast majority of the area in a Slight (2/5) Risk for wind and hail. With the potential for multiple rounds of storms, this forecast is still tentative and will likely be refined further in the coming days. More storms are possible Saturday as a front begins to move into the region under a northwesterly veering upper pattern. By late afternoon, most guidance has the front in the center of the CWA with areas to its south having the greatest threat for severe weather. Again, moderate MLCAPE and sufficiently strong shear will promote enough storm organization for a wind and hail threat and another Slight (2/5) Risk. More storms are possible Sunday, but forecast confidence decreases substantially due to the evolution of prior days` convection. Furthermore, an increasingly hostile upper pattern for convection decreases the threat of severe weather through the end of the period. Nonetheless, northwest flow aloft and a cold frontal passage will at least bring cooler weather to the Midsouth into next week with a gradual warming trend and low to medium (30-50%) shower potential to end the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 VFR. Light southerly winds 10-15 kts this afternoon and again tomorrow with gusts near 20 kts. Winds will remain southerly near 7kts tonight. Sirmon && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS