681 FXUS64 KJAN 032025 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Tonight through Wednesday night: Onshore flow will become a little more cyclonic, moist, and unstable as an upper low drifts inland from the gulf into the southeast CONUS. This will result in scattered diurnally driven showers/storms over eastern/se portions of the forecast area. Storm intensity will be limited by relatively weak instability, and rainfall will be spotty light on average. Otherwise, expect near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures, and the potential for late night/early morning fog confined mostly to southeast portions of the area. /EC/ Thursday through Monday: Not much has changed in the long term forecast reasoning. By Wednesday, the ridge begins to break down allowing for a shift to more southerly low-level flow reintroducing moisture into the region and increasing the potential for rain chances. In addition an upper level low drifting towards the Gulf Coast states will help to reinforce these rain chances in the form of isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas south of I-20 and east of I-55 for the later part of the workweek, and then eventually northern portions of the area. By the weekend, the upper-level low will have pushed eastward into the mid- Atlantic states. Simultaneously, a front continues pushing southward as a trough looks to establish over the eastern CONUS allowing the front to move into the region through the Ozarks. A northwest flow regime is expected to be established, bringing the potential for more organized storms and the potential for some strong to severe storms, particularly in the northern and northwestern portions of the forecast area. It`s a little too early to show much detail in terms of timing and intensity, especially with mesoscale influences likely to play a large role. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s mid-late workweek, with the possibility of some dangerous heat potential with the influence of growing heat and humidity concerns. A passing wave this weekend will result in cooler temperatures, bringing highs back down into the mid to upper 80s. /KP/EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. The exception could be a relatively short period of MVFR ceilings/vsby due to lower stratus/BR early Wed morning over mainly the HEZ to HBG/PIB corridor. Surface wind will be light southerly with a few gusts during peak mixing from late mrng through the aftn. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 90 70 91 / 0 20 10 20 Meridian 68 90 68 90 / 0 20 10 30 Vicksburg 69 90 72 91 / 0 10 10 20 Hattiesburg 70 92 71 94 / 0 40 20 50 Natchez 69 88 71 90 / 0 20 10 20 Greenville 70 89 73 90 / 0 10 0 10 Greenwood 70 91 72 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/KP