722
FXUS64 KJAN 231643
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1043 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Mid level clouds have finally about eroded over northwest portions
of the area and sunny skies should prevail for the remainder of
the day. All is on track and no significant adjustments were
necessary for this near term update. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Today and Tonight: Continued dry through the period but it will be
warmer. Early morning surface analysis had a >10134mb high centered
over the mid Atlantic seaboard that was ridging back across the
Gulf coast states. This high will shift east off the east coast
today but ridging will continue across our CWA from the east through
tonight. This will result in a light return flow that will gradually
work to increase low level moisture back across our region. Our
northwest flow aloft early this morning will become southwesterly by
Tuesday morning. Together these features will allow temperatures to
top out warmer this afternoon and remain warmer tonight than the
last several nights. Highs will range today from the mid 50s
northeast to the lower 60s southwest which is a couple degrees
warmer than normal. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the lower
30s east to the lower 40s west. Normal lows run in the mid to upper
30s. /22/

Christmas Eve...

On Christmas Eve, no frost, no snow,
but warmth in the air, as southerlies blow,
clouds in the west, while eastward it`s clear,
mid to high 60s will bring Christmas cheer.

Showers may come, a chance for rains,
from northwest they`ll travel, out of the plains,
Richland through Bolivar the skies may weep,
as warm southerly wind lulls us to sleep.

Christmas Day...

By morning all skies will look dull and grey,
as rain pitter patters all through the day.
early morning temps in the 40s to 50s,
throughout each and every one of our cities.

Mid-60 highs for yet another day,
to help fill the air with fun, joyous play,
though no snow will fall, lets not complain,
for Santa`s gifts may gleam in the rain.

So here`s to a Christmas, with those that are dear,
a warm and wet Christmas, so full of cheer.

/OAJ/

Through the Holiday Weekend...

The upper level trough thats bringing our Christmas rain showers
looks to be absorbed into a much more substantial trough ejecting
from central Texas throughout the remainder of the week, which will
elicit widespread from the surface through the mid levels; as
significant height falls take hold. Continued surface moisture will
becomes more robust as the week progresses, in conjunction with the
aforementioned through will culminate in effectively continuous
rainfall for the remainder of the week/weekend, along with embedded
thunderstorm activity.

A Note on Confidence...

Model resolutions with this system have continued to come into focus
providing more confidence in the overall forecast for Christmas
onwards. Projected rain totals (both 24hr and 7 day averages) have
trended upwards over the last few days, but we`re still within
seasonal norms, so there is no expectation of signaling any sort of
heavy rain threat. As always with systems that have had divergent
resolutions we can not totally rule out the possibility for heavy
rain nor a small chance for more dynamically supported embedded
convective activity that could produce local, isolated, strong winds.

In Summary...

The holiday week/weekend looks to be a wet and dreary one. If there
are any outdoor plans that aren`t enjoying/yelling at the rain,
consider a backup plan. Continue to monitor the latest products for
possible active weather especially for Friday and Saturday./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  38  67  48 /   0   0   0  40
Meridian      58  33  63  41 /   0   0   0  20
Vicksburg     63  40  69  49 /   0   0  10  50
Hattiesburg   63  36  68  45 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       63  43  69  51 /   0   0   0  40
Greenville    58  40  64  49 /   0   0  20  60
Greenwood     60  40  66  48 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/22/OAJ