281
FXUS64 KJAN 230842
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
242 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Patchy fog possible across southern portions of the area early
    Tuesday morning.

  - Temperatures will warm to about 10 to 20 degrees above normal
    across the area during the Christmas holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Through next Week:A strong upper-level ridge is expected to establish
itself through this afternoon as it will serve as the dominant
feature over the region today and remain in place through much of
the forecast period. As the ridge builds overhead, subsidence will
promote generally dry conditions with no meaningful forcing for
precipitation. Given the depth of the ridge and associated quasi-
zonal flow aloft early in the period, unseasonable warm temperatures
are expected to persist heading into Christmas, with readings
running sum 15 to 20 degrees above climatological norms for this
time of the year. At the surface, high pressure centered across the
southeastern CONUS will continue to expand eastward. This will
support clearing skies areawide a dry airmass through this
weekend. Low-level southerly flow will remain established beneath
the ridge, as a result afternoon highs will generally range from the
mid-upper 70s through the latter half of the week with some areas
potently reaching record breaking temperatures during the period.
Overnight lows will remain mild, generally falling into the low 50s
to low 60s though Saturday.

By this weekend, the synoptic pattern will begin to shift as a
strong and progressive upper trough will dig southeastwards across
the Great Lakes, driving a cold front southward toward the region.
This front is expected to impact the area by Sunday, increasing rain
chances during the morning hours and spreading through the region
through late Sunday night. The front will move steadily through the
area, ushering in strong cold air advection behind it dropping
temperatures rapidly to below freezing by Monday morning./KP/


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Clouds will continue to plague area TAF sites overnight into
early Tuesday morning. However this time, flight categories will
vary from VFR to IFR as ceilings won`t be as consistently low
across the area as they`re been the past few night. As high
pressure builds into the region from the east Tuesday, subsidence
will cause clouds to steadily erode and light north of the region.
This will allow flight categories to improve to VFR levels
areawide by late morning, and continuing through the remainder of
this 06z forecast period. Winds overnight will be calm to light
from the south between 3-5 knots. Some patchy fog will be possible
at namely KHEZ, KHBG, & KPIB around day break Tuesday, which
could periodically cause visibilities to drop to MVFR levels. Any
fog that does develop will quickly begin eroding shortly after
sunrise. Winds by late Tuesday morning will become sustained from
the west southwest between 5-10 knots, and will persist through
the afternoon hours. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  55  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      76  52  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     75  56  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   78  56  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       77  56  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    72  58  73  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     75  57  75  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/19