285
FXUS64 KJAN 180021
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
621 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A few strong storms can`t be ruled out ahead of a cold front
    late Thursday afternoon into night.

  - A brief cool down is expected Friday through Friday night
    before a more substantial warm-up takes place next week.

  - Christmas Day looks warm and dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Tonight we`ll see a greater increase in low level moisture
transport over the entire area, and this warm advection regime
will continue into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
While moisture will be sufficient for showers and storms to
develop ahead of the cold front, a complicating factor will be
convective rainfall associated with a shortwave trough crossing
the northern gulf. Guidance is still showing strong agreement for
a convective system to develop over the northern Gulf and move
onshore in the central Gulf Coast region early Thursday, and this
could disrupt the thermodynamic environment in our area by
intercepting better low level moisture transport. ML/AI guidance
are maintaining better severe weather probs north of our forecast
area, and so will continue to hold off on any formal messaging,
especially given weak instability/lift.

Following the front, cooler temperatures will follow late
Thursday night and persist through Friday/Friday night, but this
will be a relatively quick shot of cool air with the colder
anomalies passing well to our north in the progressive weather
pattern. Thereafter a more substantial warm-up appears definite
now given strong agreement among global model ensembles. In the
upper levels it is about as warm of pattern as you will ever see
in the south central CONUS as we lead up to Christmas Day, but
subtle surface features, cloud cover, etc. beneath the ridge will
dictate just how warm it will get, and whether we break any
record highs. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR ceilings will prevail across most TAF sites to start off the
period with HEZ, and GLH currently under MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings
will prevail across multiple TAF sites until 07Z Thursday. After 07Z
Thursday, ceilings will being to drop down to MVFR conditions.
Between 10Z/20Z Thursday, multiple TAF sites will see ceilings
drop down to IFR/LIFR conditions due to a low stratus cloud deck
and -SHRA. Several amendments will likely be needed through the
TAF period as conditions worsen. After 21Z conditions will begin
to improve to a mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will then
improve to VFR across multiple TAF sites after 02Z Friday. A brief
period of low-level wind shear will be possible across GTR
between 23Z/00Z Friday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  71  40  56 /  30  70  20   0
Meridian      50  68  38  56 /  40  70  50   0
Vicksburg     53  71  38  57 /  20  60  10   0
Hattiesburg   54  73  44  61 /  60  70  40   0
Natchez       55  73  41  60 /  20  50  10   0
Greenville    50  65  36  52 /  10  80  10   0
Greenwood     51  67  36  54 /  20  80  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/CR