544 FXUS64 KLIX 021803 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 103 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 An area of sh/ts moving SE through Miss this morning will exit to the gulf if they can hold together. The main MCS with this dropped into TX yesterday while the area to its east interacted with the old frontal axis and is still maintaining itself, but this should begin to decay as it moves south of the axis this morning. This will be the highest chance of rain through Tue. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The front will slowly wash out over the next few days and the sfc high currently over northern AL/GA will slowly move east allowing the deep southerly flow from the gulf to bring the high dew pt air to the area and keep it there through the week. This will play the main role of bringing summer conditions to the area with reasonably normal June weather through the remainder of the week. This means we should start to see the normal distribution of rain chances go to 30- 40% hit and miss variety by Wed. The easterlies will begin to establish over the entire gulf during the week as well. The large area of disturbed area over the Atlantic into the Caribbean is from the old front that moved off the east coast a few days ago. The front is inverted on its southern end. And since this inverted trough will get caught up in the easterlies, it will eventually move west into the gulf possibly enhancing our rain chances by Thu. Another H3 trough should be moving through the central plains late in the week causing most of this moisture to move north so Thu and maybe Fri will be good rain chances and the weekend going back to a hit and miss pattern. We are in that time of year where easterly waves can bring some good rains to the area along with the infamous tropical waterspouts. These normally come around along with heavy rainfall when the PW values go north of 2" and we don`t cross that boundary until Sat when there is no other dynamic system to help out so we would rely mainly on heating of the day to produce sh/ts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast for most if not all terminals. The lone exception may be MCB with vsbys possibly dropping to 5sm temporarily between 10/13z. Otherwise no other issues with drier air and generally light winds in place. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Light and variable winds today will begin to become light easterly to SErly today. Winds will slowly become well established SE by Tue and rise to around 15kt by late Tue into Wed. Weak and somewhat variable winds over the northern gulf for Thu and Fri then slowly shift to due south and eventually SW over the weekend into the first of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 89 69 88 / 0 10 0 40 BTR 68 91 72 91 / 0 20 10 50 ASD 68 89 72 89 / 0 10 10 40 MSY 74 89 76 89 / 0 20 10 40 GPT 70 87 75 87 / 0 10 20 40 PQL 67 89 72 88 / 0 10 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...CAB MARINE...TE