018
FXUS64 KJAN 180702
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through
    tonight as a cold front moves through the region.

  - Temperatures will warm to about 15 to 20 degrees above normal
    across our forecast area for the Christmas holidays.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Warm advection will continue into the day today ahead of an
approaching cold front. A lead shortwave disturbance crossing the
northern Gulf this morning will see continued chances for light
showers moving north through the morning, with a more organized
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms arriving this afternoon
and evening with forcing along the cold front and with that deeper
shortwave`s arrival.

After the trough axis moves east tonight, rising mid-level heights
and arriving surface high pressure should clear out clouds and
rain for Friday. Frost and light freeze conditions are possible
the for parts of the area the next two nights. Then the pattern
becomes more zonal aloft and transitions to ridge dominant by
midweek as a 590 dam H5 ridge builds over the Rio Grande valley
and pivots east along the Gulf Coast through mid week. Slight rain
chances Saturday night/Sunday with a northern stream shortwave
and into the first part of the new week will be associated with
weak forcing and transient moisture passing through the region.
Rain amounts will be limited where measurable.

Of interest, the 7-Day forecast includes high and low
temperatures pushing about 15-20 degrees warmer than normal for
late December as we move into the Christmas Eve/Day holidays. A
white Christmas is not expected, but Santa his reindeer may enjoy
a more tropical experience passing through the region next week.
/NF/


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR/MVFR flight condition as low stratus clouds currently move over
the area. Stratus deck will remain throughout the day. SHRA/-RA is
expected after 10Z Thursday, reducing flight conditions to IFR and
possible LIFR. Southerly winds around 10 kts with higher gusts
expected over the period. VFR flight conditions returns after 23Z-
00Z Friday as SHRA/-RA comes to an end. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  38  55  39 /  70  20   0   0
Meridian      67  38  55  34 /  90  40   0   0
Vicksburg     71  38  56  39 /  60  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   74  42  60  36 /  70  30   0   0
Natchez       74  40  59  41 /  50  10   0   0
Greenville    65  35  51  38 /  80  10   0   0
Greenwood     67  34  52  38 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/NF