062
FXUS64 KJAN 021852
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
152 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Tonight through next weekend...

Early to mid week (Tonight through Tuesday): Region will be shunted
in between mid-level ridging off to the west & surface high off to
the east. This will gradually lead to warm advection & subtle
moistening aloft. Lows will be seasonable tonight (63-70F) & highs
moderating into the low 90s (88-92F). Ridging at the sfc & aloft
will keep the region dry on Tuesday. Some continued Canadian
wildfire smoke concentration aloft is possible through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Sunday: As a mean longwave trough takes shape
along & west of the MS River corridor, this will coincide with an
upper low meandering to the northwest over the north-central Gulf.
This will lead to increased convergence & southerly return flow &
moistening of the atmospheric column (PWs less than one inch rising
to nearly an inch & a half to slightly higher). Upper low will
gradually phase & eject northeast into late week off the eastern
seaboard. Scattered rain showers & isolated to scattered storms will
be expected mid to late week, with the highest coverage in the Hwy
98 to I-59 corridors (15-55% each day & up to 55-70% on Wednesday
with increased convergence). Highs will gradually moderate to
seasonably warm, some 2-5F above Wednesday (88-91F) & 3-6F above
into late week on Thursday to Friday (89-94F with warmest day into
Friday).

As the synoptic pattern gradually becomes conducive for northwesterly
flow, there will be a gradual shift in coverage area into the
Golden Triangle for scattered to numerous rain showers & isolated
to scattered storm coverage (25-70%, with 55-75% in the northeast
into the weekend). There is some support in CSU machine learning
probs & perturbed northwesterly flow into the weekend (25- 40kts
Saturday & especially Sunday), combined with favorable lapse
rates/thermo profiles, for organized strong to severe potential.
Confidence is too low to introduce at this point but may be needed
in the coming days if trends persist. This pattern could persist
into the following week. With dewpoints climbing Wednesday through
Friday into the 71-75F range & 73-78F into the weekend, an
increase in dangerous heat & humidity will be a concern. This is
too far out to highlight in HWO graphics for now. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Areas of elevated smoke transported into the area from Canadian
wildfires are noted across the area but are generally not
expected to affect flight categories. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail through the TAF period with winds generally easterly
and light. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  89  69  88 /   0   0   0  40
Meridian      64  90  68  90 /   0   0   0  40
Vicksburg     69  90  69  90 /   0   0   0  20
Hattiesburg   66  92  71  90 /   0  10  10  70
Natchez       68  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
Greenville    68  89  70  89 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     68  90  71  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/LP