415 FXUS64 KLIX 121911 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Tonight through Saturday morning, the enhanced summertime pattern continues. Scattered to numerous storms will be expected, mainly during peak daytime heating hours late afternoon through early evening. These storms will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-60mph) inside stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern inside of these storms as PW values are above the 75th percentile for SPC sounding climatology, indicating efficiency. A quick 1-2 inches will be possible, which could be an issue for mainly urban areas. Temperatures will be in the mid 90s with heat index values in the low 100s. The bulk of the best heating will be limited by the rainfall. Still, it is always important to stay hydrated, especially early in the season. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Saturday through mid week, still expect those daily summertime showers and storms, but by Monday to Tuesday timeframe, should be a little lower chances of PoPs. These scattered storms will mainly be daily during the peak daytime heating hours, especially late afternoon through early evening hours. Given the high PWs remaining along with the abundant moisture, etc., these storms will mainly produce the threat of frequent lightning and gusty sub-severe (30-60mph) winds. There is still some uncertainty in the coverage and PoPs of these storms, given it is still a while out in time. So we will keep monitoring for changes. Generally, temperatures will be in the mid 90s with heat index values in the low to mid 90s, especially as we head toward mid- week. So, be prepared to hydrate and take precautions as we head deeper into the summer. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. TEMPO groups are in the forecast for this afternoon into the evening hours for lower ceilings and visibilities due to showers and storms at all area airports. Apart from that, brief periods of fog are expected at MCB around daybreak for a few hours, bringing MVFR and IFR conditions and lower ceilings and visibilities. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Winds will be benign for much of the forecast period. Winds will be southerly and moderate (10-15kts) for the entire forecast period. Showers and storms will be expected daily for the rest of the week into the weekend, which could produce localized hazards for mariners like gusty winds (40-60mph) and frequent lightning at times. MSW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 89 72 90 / 30 70 30 80 BTR 74 90 75 91 / 40 80 20 80 ASD 75 90 74 92 / 20 70 20 70 MSY 79 92 78 92 / 20 70 20 80 GPT 78 88 77 90 / 20 70 30 70 PQL 74 89 74 90 / 20 60 30 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW