261 FXUS64 KMEG 021732 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Dry conditions are expected today, Tuesday, and through the first half of Wednesday. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. - An unsettled weather pattern will return by Thursday through the weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Another quiet early morning across the Mid-South under clear skies with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some patchy fog has begun to develop across north MS over the past few hours and will likely continue to do so through sunrise. A few locations along the TN River and near bodies of water could see some patchy fog as well. Any fog that develops will quickly mix out following sunrise. Overall, a summer-like pattern is expected to start this week. Upper-level ridge will continue to build through the region today and into tomorrow, keeping the Mid-South dry. Will mention that some lingering haziness similar to this weekend is expected to linger today and tomorrow, but air quality impacts are not expected. High temperatures will continue their upward trend through the first half of the week, with highs reaching the upper 80s today and a few locations across north/central MS reaching 90 tomorrow. By Wednesday, upper-level ridge will be placed across the eastern U.S., with a trend towards a more zonal upper-level flow pattern by the weekend. This will ultimately bring an unsettled weather pattern back to the Mid-South. Wednesday does still remain somewhat of a question mark, with guidance struggling to place an approaching frontal boundary. This boundary is expected to stall west of the Mid-South, though the location will drive if we remain dry or not Wednesday. Have kept PoPs in for now given the uncertainty, but would say my confidence is low for locations east of the MS River seeing anything in the way of precipitation on Wednesday. Have more confidence for locations west of the MS River, although confidence for that is still low given the frontal boundary placement uncertainties. However, by Thursday through the remainder of the week, multiple shortwaves are expected to push through the area bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day. While there will be some instability each day, do think the lack of any upper-level support will hinder any severe thunderstorm development. In terms of QPF amounts, most guidance suggests up to an inch of rain between Thursday and Saturday. As for temperatures, do expect temperatures to remain above normal in the upper 80s on Wednesday. With the increased precip chances and cloudiness, expect for high temperatures to dip a few degrees each day through the remainder of the week but remain in the 80s. Beyond Saturday, weather pattern appears to remain unsettled with additional shower and thunderstorm chances into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR forecast with no impacts to aviation expected. Fair weather cumulus and light southerly winds will prevail this afternoon and evening. Some backing of winds to a more southerly component will occur tonight, lasting through the end of the period. Gusts could get up to 15-20 knots by 18z tomorrow that will last through the afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...JAB