987 FXUS64 KMEG 050420 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1120 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - An unsettled weather pattern will return Thursday and continue through the weekend with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain. - Temperatures will cool slightly behind a front this weekend. Highs will drop into the low 80s for portions of the area Saturday and Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 A nearly stationary front stretches from the Arklatex into the Mid MS Valley this evening. Moisture advecting northward on the east side of the boundary combined with some weak lift from upper level disturbances moving through the WSW aloft has resulted in scattered SHRAs and isolated TSRAs across NE AR and the MO Bootheel. MLCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg tempered by weak shear and marginal lapse rates will result in isolated TSRA threat continuing west of the MS River, mostly north of I-40, through tonight. Ongoing forecast handles this well. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 220 PM radar imagery depicts a few showers and thunderstorms stretching from northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri. While this activity will largely stay out of the Mid-South, downstream development will be possible mainly over the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas through the evening. Luckily, our environment remains lack luster for severe weather, so the primary concerns with these storms will be heavy rainfall and strong winds up to 40 mph. This activity will dissipate around sunset, allowing another warm and dry night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Unfortunately, rain chances will plague the Mid-South through the remainder of the forecast period. Beginning late tonight, upper level ridging will slide over Texas and place the Mid-South in zonal flow aloft. Over the next several days, multiple disturbances will rotate around the outer periphery of this ridge. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of severe weather - beginning tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon, mainly impacting areas along and north of the TN/MS border. As is typical with a summertime pattern, CAPE will be plentiful. The main caveat to upscale storm growth Thursday afternoon lies within relatively weak bulk shear. High-res models depict this shear slightly increasing in the late afternoon, which would yield a damaging wind and large hail threat. Regardless, it appears the threat for severe weather on Thursday will be confined to the afternoon and evening hours. Greater model disagreement manifests for Friday and Saturday due to the potential for multiple MCS passages. The ECMWF depicts an ongoing MCS Friday morning. However, confidence in this occurring is low due to spread within lapse rates and CIN values Thursday night into Friday. The greater potential for severe storm development begins Friday afternoon, when severe parameters max- out. Another MCS is possible in this time frame, posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has the Mid-South outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe storms Friday. A rinse and repeat forecast exists for Saturday as yet another round of storms impacts the Mid-South. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms also exists on Saturday, mainly along and south of I-40. Rain chances will continue through the weekend before a weak front crosses the area on Sunday. The Mid-South may see a brief lull in precipitation activity early next week, but by midweek rain chances return. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across JBR/MEM/MKL with MVFR conditions at TUP overnight and into the afternoon hours. The biggest impact this issuance will remain timing and intensity of convection. Subsequent model runs have begun to somewhat align with timing and intensity of convection tomorrow, though confidence remains on the lower end. Due to uncertainty, as we sit ahead of a stationary boundary, PROB30s at JBR/TUP looked to be the best way to handle convection with TEMPOs at MEM/MKL. South/southwest winds sub 10 kts will continue over the next 30 or so hours. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...AEH