074
FXUS64 KJAN 250643
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Today through Saturday Night...
Weather conditions will remain generally quiet this morning across
most of our forecast area with a few lingering showers/storms
possible across the Pine Belt. Showers and storms will increase in
coverage across our CWA later this afternoon/early evening thanks to
southerly moist boundary layer advection over our area. A few strong
scattered strong storms cannot be ruled out. This afternoon
convection will provide some relief from the sweltering temperatures
mainly for areas east of I-55 with heat indices struggling to reach
105 degrees. Meanwhile, areas west of I-55 will have the best
potential to see heat index readings between 105-110 degrees. A heat
advisory remains in effect from 11 am this morning until 7 pm later
this evening for areas along and west of a line from Columbus to
Jackson to Natchez MS, including portions of southeast AR and
northeast LA.
Rain chances will begin to diminish later this evening with a few
lingering showers possible south of Hwy 84. Cloud cover will start
to increase slightly from the south as we head into the overnight
period. HREF guidance is starting to show very low probabilities
(around 10%) of patchy fog development for areas east of I-55.
Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics at this time,
however shallow fog will be possible around dawn. Nighttime
temperatures will dip into the mid 70s areawide.
Saturday morning will start off relatively quiet for most of our
area with a few scattered showers along and south of Hwy 84. Heading
into Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening, showers and t-storms
will increase in coverage across our entire forecast area. Warm and
humid conditions will persist across the southeast CONUS on Saturday
with afternoon highs in the low 90s areawide. Several areas west of
I-55 including portions of NE LA will have the best potential of
seeing heat indices between 105-110 degrees. Because of this, an
"Elevated" risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised
through Saturday.
NHC is still monitoring a weak disturbance out in the Gulf that has
a 10% chance of development over the next 7 days. We will continue
to monitor this disturbance but it looks like we should be free from
any tropical impacts over the next week. /CR/
The forecast for the extended period remains on track with no
significant changes/modifications made to the overall forecast.
Dangerous heat conditions will be primary focus for the long term
period and additional heat advisories/warnings will likely be
needed as well. Please see the previous forecast discussion for more
information:
Through Late Next Week...
A west-east oriented 594+ dam 500mb upper-level ridge will remain
entrenched over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS throughout
the period. The strength of the core of this ridge is in the 90th to
99th percentile range, indicative of the dangerous heat stress
threat in poses for large swaths of the country over the next week.
Easterly waves south of the ridge will bring intermittent
disruptions to the heat and humidity driven by the ridge with
accompanying bump in rain chances.
There is a good chance that we will need widespread Extreme Heat
warnings through next week, with Tuesday/Wednesday set to be our
hottest days (heat indexes between 115-120F).
It should be noted that with the wealth of latent heat/potential
energy, there remains a small chance near daily for a microscale
feature (thunderstorm/shower) locally overachieving by overcoming
the strong mid-upper level inversion can not be ruled out. Should
that happen, a brief severe thunderstorm producing damaging winds
can not be ruled out. As always it remains prudent to monitor all of
our messaging for the latest updates this summer.
Long Term Heat Outlook...
We did look further ahead through the next month or so to see if
there is any real relief from the heat on the horizon. There does
not look to be any shift in the pattern or a break coming up.
/OAJ/CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025
A round of MVFR to IFR low stratus ceilings is expected through
the early morning hours at many sites, with most locations
improving to VFR again by mid-morning. Then, scattered to numerous
SHRA and TS are expected through the afternoon and early evening
hours, potentially resulting in temporary categorical reductions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of
the TAF period. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 91 74 93 75 / 80 20 60 10
Meridian 91 73 93 73 / 80 20 70 10
Vicksburg 92 75 94 75 / 70 20 60 10
Hattiesburg 92 76 93 75 / 80 20 80 10
Natchez 91 74 92 74 / 80 20 70 0
Greenville 92 74 93 75 / 50 20 50 10
Greenwood 93 75 94 76 / 60 20 50 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for MSZ018-019-025>031-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-059-060.
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
CR/CR/DL