109
FXUS64 KJAN 170756
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
156 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A warming trend will continue through Thursday.

  - A few strong storms can`t be ruled out ahead of a cold front
    late Thursday afternoon into night.

  - A brief cool down is expected Friday through Friday night
    before a more substantial warm-up takes place this weekend
    into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Through early next week (Tuesday)...

This week (Through Thursday): Early this morning, surface high
is situated over to east, with mean ridging in the mid to upper
levels situated over the Southeast States. Southwesterly return
flow is moving in over the ArkLaTex into the Gulf Coast states.
This will lead to continued moist and warm advection over the next
couple of days. Light radar returns are showing up west of the MS
River corridor, but this likely remains aloft with RAP and NAM
sounding analysis indicative of moist ascent aloft and building
downward with time. There have been a few obs indicating some rain
but will take some time to build in from west to east. Morning
water vapor and RAP analysis are panning out as anticipated:
elongated trough stretching southwest across the Ozarks into a
stronger spoke of vorticity diving into the Sierra Madres in
southwest Mexico. Light rain is progged move in west of Interstate
55 and northwest of the Natchez Trace, with any light totals up to
a tenth of an inch west of the MS River. Highs will be seasonably
warm today, some 4F to 8F above (56F to 68F).

More numerous to widespread coverage of rain and storms is
expected Thursday through early Friday. As a stout upper synoptic
trough/cold core swing into the northern Plains into Great Lakes,
984-987mb surface low will drive a front into the ArkLaMS to Gulf
Coast area. There could be some preceding fog Thursday morning,
so will continue to monitor. Upper ascent/favorable jet dynamics
(right entrance region) will favor increased rain and storm
coverage into the afternoon to evening hours. Previously mentioned
southern spoke of vorticity/shortwave will lift northeast into
midday Thursday across the northern Gulf. This could lead to some
coastal rain chances preceding the stronger frontal passage and
moisture convergence to the northwest. Upper jet may focus a
heavier band of precipitation over the Gulf, which could limit
northward extent of moisture transport. SPC maintains the
focused severe potential to the north. However, strong storm
potential remains on the table late Thursday afternoon into night,
with juxtaposition of sufficient mean deep layer shear (30 to
45kts) and subtle mid-level lapse rates (vertical totals 23C to
25C). Some of the machine learning probs and CIPS analogs are
trending less confident for isolated severe potential. Main
failure mode remains subtle height falls to stable heights south
of Interstate 20 while more sufficient height falls to the north.
Winds also look veering into the afternoon, but a 30-45kt low-
level jet could support some strong storms. Will continue to hold
off any formal messaging in HWO graphics based less confident
trends.

Frontal passage is anticipated on Friday, with 1025mb
surface high moving through. Sensible temperatures on Thursday
will be seasonably warm, some 10F to 16F above (64F to 76F) before
more seasonable Friday in the wake of the front (lows: 34F to 43F
Friday morning; highs: 48F to 60F).

This weekend into early next week: Predominately zonal flow will
be established into the weekend, with more stout longwave trough
axis in the Great Lakes. A weak stationary boundary and warm
advection showers/light rain chances will persist into early next
week. Seasonable warmth will be the norm persisting into next
week: highs some 8F to 16F above (64F to 76F) and lows some 15F
to 20F above (48F to 58F). /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR flight condition with southerly winds up to 5 kts is expected.
Brief reduction to MVFR conditions at southern sites near 12Z
Wednesday as low stratus clouds move overhead. After 16Z Wednesday,
southern sites will return to VFR conditions. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  53  71  38 /  20  20  80  20
Meridian      63  49  67  37 /  10  40  80  50
Vicksburg     64  52  71  38 /  30  10  80  10
Hattiesburg   66  54  73  43 /  10  50  80  40
Natchez       67  54  73  40 /  20  20  60  10
Greenville    58  51  66  36 /  30  10  90  10
Greenwood     61  50  67  35 /  30  10  90  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SW