095 FXUS64 KJAN 162306 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Tonight and Thursday: Any lingering fire weather concerns this evening will end overnight as diurnal RH increases occur with falling temperatures. Tonight, temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than last night, falling into the 50s F as winds turn southerly around the western flank of the high pressure center responsible for the fair weather. /86/ Friday into next week... (Previous discussion below remains valid...) We could knock on the door of 90 some spots Friday with the peak of an 850mb thermal ridge. a tight pressure gradient 7 to 8mb will set up over the area Friday and will lead to gustier winds, especially in the afternoon with deep boundary layer mixing. A wind graphic may eventually be needed for Friday. Moisture will begin to recover later this week with southerly trajectories becoming established. Our area will remain under the western periphery of the surface high/upper ridge into the weekend in advance of a stalled frontal boundary to our northwest. A stout shortwave will eject across the southern plains and will force this front across our area Sunday into Monday, forcing the high pressure to break down. In response, chances for showers and storms will steadily increase across the area, some of which could be strong. There is a slight risk in the HWO to capture this possibility, but the threat looks conditional with some limiting factors working against a greater severe threat. High heights result in weak lapse rates and height falls are delayed and/or weak. By the time the front arrives and the high actually breaks down, upper forcing is ejecting out of the area. Next weeks looks to host a whole range of scenarios. While the GFS pushes the front all the way to the coast, the Euro stalls it just north of our area. These differences are responsible for the very different depictions of our weather for next week. GFS pushes the front through, introducing an airmass change with building ridging in its wake, while the Euro keeps rain chances with the stalled boundary. Ensemble data is also variable, but generally keeps the ridge weak enough to keep some rain chances for next week. I will say, it does seem probable that the frontal boundary stalls as the upper forcing is lifting out. What plays out may very well be something in between. All this said, low pops are maintained into next week. I`m sure refinements will be made to future forecasts as data comes into clearer focus./SAS/86/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated through the majority of the TAF period. A brief period of MVFR stratus can`t be ruled out over parts of northeast LA and south AR early Thursday morning, but no TAF sites are expected to be impacted. Southerly winds will be gusty at times during the day on Thursday. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 54 84 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 50 84 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 55 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 51 84 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 56 84 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 55 84 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 55 84 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 86/SAS/DL