394 FXUS64 KLIX 191147 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 647 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 It was another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday but coverage was lower than previous days. Good news, we will still see rain but it looks like the next 2-3 days coverage will continue to be more isolated to scattered. The bad news, this will mean hotter temperatures with mid 90s expected across much of the area. That also means somewhat oppressive conditions with the heat index in the mid 100s. So why will activity be a little less active today and heading into the weekend. Well for the past week we have been basically between two ridges, one centered to our west and the other centered over the Bahamas. Not only did this place the region under a weakness but we actually had weak impulses moving around the western ridge and southwest into the Lower MS Valley leading to more of a stalled trough and not just a weakness aloft. This provided some subtle forcing that was aided by daytime heating and with little to no suppression aloft we saw convection fire easily and spread out with numerous to widespread storm coverage at times. This is now changing. Over the next 3 days today may have the most convection but it should still be less than yesterday and far less than what we had been seeing the previous days but why. The ridge to our west is going to start to build east today and it looks to build a little faster than previously thought. The ridge is already beginning to push east with the ridge axis extending east. There is currently a weak impulse moving through TX and OK but it is beginning to become quite channelized and taking on more and more of an east to west orientation. As this happens our ridge axis will start to extend into the Lower MS Valley and northwestern Gulf around midday today. This will lead to an increase in mid lvl hghts and thus slightly stronger suppression which should hurt convection some. Now multiple things, we didn`t say that there will not be any storms as that is not the case. The increase in suppression that we may see will not be overwhelming and with so much moisture available daytime heating and seabreeze/lake breeze influences will get scattered storms to develop today. We just won`t likely see the constant redevelopment of storms along outflow boundary interactions today. The biggest difference should be Friday and Saturday. As we head into Friday the ridge will be firmly entrenched across the Lower MS Valley. In fact it will likely be centered right over the ARKLAMISS. This typically would kibosh convection and even allow the area to torch out. That won`t necessarily be the case though. First the ridge even though it will be centered over the area it will still not be overwhelming. Models suggest that this ridge will likely only be around 592/593dm while h5 temps will be around -6 to -7C by 00z Saturday. For this time of the year that is not that impressive and thus not typically enough to put the brakes on convective development. Add on that PWs still look to be around 1.75 to 1.9" Friday and as we have said this will be more of a dirty ridge...rather warm temperatures but still allow for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Did make some slight adjustments to back down PoPs about 10% across southwest MS and adjacent LA parishes and bumped up highs a degree in a few spots Friday. Most of the area should range between 92-94 but isolated locations touching 95 can not be ruled out. Saturday could be a carbon copy of Friday. The ridge will continue to build with hghts possibly around 594/595dm but it will also continue to shift to the northeast. The ridge likely won`t have moved far enough to the northeast to truly place the area under the stronger easterlies yet but with the center of it mainly over western TN we should still not have too much of a problem getting isolated to widely scattered convection. Afternoons highs look to also be in the lower to mid 90s. One things to bring up is the heat index. Right now with highs generally in the 91/92 to 94 range and abundant BL moisture in place heat index values will likely climb to 103-107 in multiple regions. The one things that we may need to watch will be winds especially over coastal MS. The synoptic wind field is rather weak but still out of the southwest however h925 winds may be out of the WNW and h85 winds could be out of the northeast. Typically the sfc/BL winds would be the things to watch but with the LL winds having somewhat of a northerly component if we are able to mix that down the seabreeze will struggle to push north and any areas just north of the seabreeze in coastal MS could really heat up with temps possibly topping out at 95 or even 96. This would lead to higher heat index values; so its just something to watch. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Nothing has really changed in the thinking for the extended portion of the forecast. Models continue to show a very hot setup to our north and northeast but we look to be well into the easterlies. This will increase the rain chances once again and help to knock down the afternoon temps a few degrees. No changes made to the NBM this forecast period. By Sunday afternoon our ridge will be well off to the northeast centered over the northern Appalachians. The ridge then will sit over the Appalachians for a few days before it starts to build back to the south or southwest by midweek next week. As we mentioned with it centered so far away we will move under the easterlies and that will allow for a few easterly waves moving across the Gulf to be a little farther north across the northern Gulf coast. With each wave we will see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Pops are high for each day but the driver will be those waves so it is highly likely that we will see periods of higher PoPs with the approach of the wave followed by lower PoPs after it passes by. Timing these right now is impossible so that is why everyday has very high PoPs at this time. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Outside of MCB all other terminals are in VFR. MCB on the other hand is VLIFR status with vsbys down to 1/4sm and cigs 500 ft. MCB will quickly improve and should be back in VFR status before 14z. After that the main concern is convection however, convection will have far less coverage and with that only carrying VCTS and PROB30`s at all terminals. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 At issuance time, the main concern will be the potential for flight restrictions at KMCB. MVFR visibilities have been occurring there over the past few hours, but haven`t seen similar conditions at surrounding airports. Would note that there were IFR and lower conditions there briefly after sunrise Wednesday morning, so there`s at least some potential that exists. MVFR ceilings will become briefly widespread at mid-morning as cumulus field develops, but expect cloud bases to quickly rise to or above FL030. Expectation is for isolated SHRA/TSRA to develop around midday or a little after, but guidance is quite varied as to how extensive the areal coverage becomes. Will use PROB30 with most TSRA dissipating prior to 00z Friday. /RW/ && .MARINE... Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Overall the forecast is generally benign from a wind and wave standpoint. The primary concern is convection which is mainly overnight and early in the morning. Winds will generally be at or below 12kt while seas of 1-3 ft (probably more like 1-2ft) will occur. Obviously higher winds and seas along with waterspouts can be expected with any thunderstorm. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 73 92 73 / 40 30 30 10 BTR 94 75 93 75 / 40 30 40 10 ASD 93 73 93 75 / 40 30 40 10 MSY 93 77 93 78 / 50 30 40 10 GPT 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 20 PQL 93 73 93 74 / 40 30 50 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB