568 FXUS64 KLIX 170835 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 335 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Old frontal boundary is now oriented north south over central Louisiana this morning. Southerly winds with a larger vertical depth found to the west of this boundary transporting plenty of moisture northward. We will continue to enjoy nice conditions while we remain to the west of this boundary, but it will dissipate over the next few days. Southerly winds will also begin to rise across the areas today and Fri but won`t get high enough to keep the heat away as we will also tack on several degrees between today and Fri and it would not be a surprise to see our first 90F somewhere in the area. No issues in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Temps will fall back by a few degrees over the weekend as winds should be high enough to ventilate the column. Another front will move through into LA/MS by the weekend and stall before reaching the coast Monday. We should see plenty of sh/ts associated with this boundary and this should give us at least a higher chance of rain starting Sunday through Tue. Most of the severe weather variables are not very high as this system approaches Sunday. But they are enough to at least introduce the possibility of an isolated severe storm. The deep dry slot at H7 is situated perfectly to help cause downbursts if any cores can take advantage of it. The front should stall north of the coast while deep moisture remains which will help keep rainfall chances high enough that most areas should see some rain, which will be needed by that time. The stalled front will begin to move back north by Mon night into Tue. This will leave our area in a deep moisture environment along with CAPE values in and around 1kJ. This should be enough to keep a few sh/ts going each day during the afternoons. A short wave may move through the zonal flow over the area by Wed and Thu and this could be a little more interesting since we are still in MCS season. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 There could be some MVFR cigs move into the western areas mainly for BTR to MCB late tonight. Otherwise, VFR this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 SE winds will become more stable today rising to around 15kt over the weekend. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm could move over the coastal waters Sunday and Monday. Wind speeds will likely approach 20kt over the weekend and this may cause headlines to be introduced. Wind speeds will lower back to around 10kt by Mon but SE fetch will remain well into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 83 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 85 65 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 81 64 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 81 67 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 77 65 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 78 61 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE